EP316 - Annual Predictions 2024 

Jason visited the Walmart Neighborhood Market in Pea Ridge, Arkansas featuring drone delivery. Here is a video for those interested.

2023 Predictions Recap

Jason:

1. At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City) Yes
2. BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL. No
3. Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network Yes
4. Meta/Google/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks. No
5. Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US) Yes

Jason Total Score: 3 of 5

Scot:

1. Amazon uses this 2022 setback/slowdown/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they take share and raise the bar on shipping. Yes
2. Shopify is acquired No
3. An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it’s adopted and how cool it is. Yes
4. E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates. Yes
5. Sephora and/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery. Yes

Scot Total Score: 4 of 5

Trends revert to the mean, and Scot is back on Top!

2024 Predictions

Jason:

1. Retail Media Networks go In-store. At least 1 top 20 retailer launches a digital in-store ad network
2. AI is even hotter at end of 2024 than now. Most text boxes in E-Com are GenAI powered. A least one retailer has an AI based auto-replenishment solution with significant adoption.
3. Bifurcation drives at least two more retail bankruptcies, including 1 national specialty retailer, and one general merchandise/dept store. (two top 50 retailers)
4. China companies focus more on West and get more traction. Shein successful IPO. Temu US gets to at least 75% of target US E-Com.
5. Grocery E-Commerce goes from $95B to $125B in 2024 (after being down in 2023 per Bricks meets clicks).

Bonus: Live-steaming, MetaVerse, Crypto still not a major thing in e-commerce; Management stops blaming performance on retail crime; and Smaller RMN’s fail.

Scot:

1. Amazon relaunches Alexa on a native LLM
2. Temu falters as people realize it’s wish 2.0
3. RMN is currently $52b, growing 20% y/y, accelerates in 24 to 30% and $67b (coresight has the 52 datapoint)
4. Instacart who’s stock IPO’d at $33 and now is $23, solves ads and pops to 40
5. While everyone thinks Shein/Temu takes share from Amazon, they end up hurting Nordstrom, Macys and Target instead – materially (10%+) focus on apparel, maybe take target out?

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Episode 316 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 11th, 2024.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Transcript

Jason:
[0:23 ] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show. This is episode 316 being recorded on Thursday, January 11th.
I’m your host, Jason Retail Geek Goldberg. And as usual, I’m here with your co-host, Scott Wingo. go.

Scot:
[0:39 ] Hey, Jason, and welcome back. Jason and Scott show listeners.
Well, folks, this is one of our most popular shows of the year.
This is our Jason and Scott annual prediction show.
This is where being an audio podcast really works against us.
You can’t see us, but Jason, I normally wear leisure wear when we record the podcast, but tonight we’re wearing tuxedos.
Jason, I really like that cummerbund. It looks really good on you.

Jason:
[1:04 ] Thanks.

Scot:
[1:04 ] I feel like you’ve really elevated elevated your game this year the the suede tuxedo really suits you thanks thanks <span