Eli Lilly (LLY): Is the $1,000 Stock Still a Buy — or a Breakdown Waiting to Happen?

Forget Big Tech for a moment.There’s a pharmaceutical titan sprinting toward a potential $1 trillion valuation, reshaping healthcare — and possibly your portfolio.

We’re talking about Eli Lilly (LLY).

The stock surged above $1,000 per share, driven by blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs, massive revenue beats, and a pipeline that could redefine modern medicine. But with the stock looking extremely expensive…Is LLY still a buy? Or does a major pullback make more sense?

Let’s break it down.

💊 Eli Lilly’s Explosive Growth: The Fundamentals

🚀 Revenue Growth: +54% YoY

Q3 revenue hit $17.6B, fueled by two mega-drugs:

1️⃣ Mounjaro (Tirzepatide)

* Type 2 diabetes treatment

* $6.5B in Q3 sales (+100% YoY)

* One of the fastest-growing drugs in pharma history

2️⃣ Zepbound

* Obesity / weight-loss drug

* Approved for chronic weight management

* Part of the fastest-expanding drug category in the world

The obesity drug market could reach $80B by 2030 — and Lilly is dominating.

EPS Blowout

* Q3 EPS: $7.20

* Analyst estimate: $5.89

Lilly is printing money.

Raised Guidance

2025 revenue guidance: $63B–$63.5BManagement only guided one year out — but confidence is sky-high.

🔬 The Real Long-Term Engine: The Pipeline

LLY is not a one-drug pony.Upcoming catalysts include:

🟦 Orforglipron (Oral GLP-1)

* Oral weight-loss pill

* Eliminates injection barrier

* Regulatory submissions planned for late 2025

🧠 Donanemab (Alzheimer’s Treatment)

* Full FDA approval

* Huge unmet medical need

* Prestige + long-term revenue potential

* Adoption may be slow due to safety monitoring — but impact is enormous

This pipeline justifies Lilly’s premium valuation better than any other pharma giant.

📉 The Bear Case: The Price Is… High

At $1,000–$1,025, LLY is:

* Overbought on the daily RSI (83+)

* Approaching overbought on the weekly RSI (70)

* Trading well above long-term moving averages

* Roughly at intrinsic value based on some DCF models

Even bulls admit:“LLY needs a pullback.”

📈 Technical Analysis

Trend: Strongly bullish

Short-term:

* Pullback likely

* Support near $900–$930

* Ideal dip-buy zone

Medium-term:

* Reasonable range: $1,000–$1,200

Long-term:

If pipeline delivers and Novo Nordisk doesn’t catch up:LLY could hit $1,500+.Analysts already project a high-end 12-month target of $1,500.

Downside risk:

If market corrects sharply →LLY could revisit $700s (unlikely without macro shock).

🧠 Investor Conclusion

Eli Lilly is:

✔ Fundamentally elite✔ Dominating the fastest-growing pharma segment✔ Backed by a pipeline that supports long-term growth✘ Very expensive in the short term✘ Technically overbought✘ Prime for a pullback before new highs

Short-term: Expect volatility & potential pullbackLong-term: One of the strongest healthcare names on the planet

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