Our guest today is Andrew Goledzinowski who previously served as a senior career Australian diplomat with several posts within Southeast Asia, including as ambassador to Vietnam, high commissioner to Malaysia, as well as the first assistant secretary at the Southeast Asia Regional Division.

We will start our conversation talking about recent developments in Australia's ties with Southeast Asia. Be sure to tune in as we go through a range of other subjects, including the shifting geoeconomic landscape in the region and Australia's strategy on Southeast Asia as well as the Indo- Pacific and where that might be headed.

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GRADING AUSTRALIA SOUTHEAST ASIA ENGAGEMENT TODAY

So welcome to the podcast Ambassador and let’s get started. We've seen Australia record some notable wins in its engagement with Southeast Asia. There was a second special summit held last year, upgrades with countries including Vietnam, which you were involved in as well. At the same time, of course, just like with any other country, there are no doubt some limitations as well and challenges within Australia's wider approach. For example, on economic ties, there was a government commissioned report on investment in Southeast Asia that noted that Southeast Asia is just over three percent of Australia's investment stocks abroad, and there needs to be a lot more work to be done in that domain. I guess we can start with how you assess or grade Australia's Southeast Asia strategy? And you can use any sort of scale you want, whether it's a letter grade or a scale of one to ten.

Ambassador Andrew Goledzinowski: Gosh, that's a good question, Prashanth. I haven't been asked that one before. Well, look, from my point of view, our relations with Southeast Asia are as good as they ever have been. So from that point of view, I guess the relative trajectory and performance is very good. And you would have to say that the student is improving. But in absolute terms, it's not good enough, to be honest. I think I would give Australia a solid B. And the reason is that it's increasingly obvious that our future lies in the region, and our engagement has been successful but insufficient, I would say. And there are a lot of datapoints that suggest this.

I mean, politically, we're doing very well. You referenced the second special summit. And, you know, the fact that we can convene these, that the leaders come, that they all recognize that Australia is an important player in the region, is valuable, is worth engaging. Those are all positives. And I would say the sort of the less tangible atmospherics – the vibe, if you like – is also very good. The relationship is respectful. There are no major irritants, and all that is positive.

But as I say, it's not really enough. You referenced the fact that three percent of our overseas investments are in Southeast Asia. That is a damning data point, I think. For a country that is as open as Australia is, we're a trading nation. We rely very much on open communication and commerce. We have been sort of skipping over Southeast Asia for far too long. And there are some good reasons for that. Our institutions that invest are generally the big ones. It's our pension funds, which are ginormous: they have something like four trillion dollars in assets under management. Our big publicly-listed companies – the big four banks, for example –and the others, they tend to be very conservative investors. They prefer to invest in Australia or in North America, and they are not looking for big returns. They would prefer to be safe rather than get rich fast. And that holds us back a little bit. Because in Southeast Asia, you have to be prepared to take a little bit of risk. And most importantly, you have to be prepared to get involved. You know, we tend to sort of do things from over here and then eventually make an investment decision and then move over into Southeast Asia in a cautious way. But as I sometimes say, investing in Southeast Asia is a bit like crossing the road in Hanoi. And if you've been to Hanoi, you know that you can't plan it from the curb. You have to step out into the traffic and have confidence that you will navigate your way across. And invariably, you do. But it does require that first step, and we in Australia tend to be just a little bit chary of that.

“[A]s I sometimes say, investing in Southeast Asia is a bit like crossing the road in Hanoi. And if you've been to Hanoi, you know that you can't plan it from the curb. You have to step out into the traffic and have confidence that you will navigate your way across. And invariably, you do. But it does require that first step…”

DIRECTION OF TRAVEL IN BILATERAL AND SECTORAL ENGAGEMENT

ASEAN Wonk: Right. That's a great analogy on the sort of leap of faith amidst the motorcycles in Hanoi. You mentioned this notion of the vibe or the atmospherics or the narrative, which I actually think is a really important point. And for Australia, there have been a whole host of announcements in the past couple of years – a new green and digital shipping corridor with Singapore, work that was done with Vietnam to upgrade the relationship, and you just saw the Australian prime minister in Indonesia just after being elected in his first foreign trip talk about some of the economic opportunities with the Prabowo government. Given your perspective of having served in several of these different countries and also looking at the region regionally, what would you say about some of the notable movements on direction of travel, whether it's with respect to countries or sectors for Australia strategy in Southeast Asia?

Ambassador Andrew Goledzinowski: Well, I would say government is leading the way. You've referenced some of the initiatives. You've referenced that the prime minister himself has chosen to focus on Southeast Asia. The thing is, you know, it can't just be the government. We need the business sector. We need civil society. We need universities and others to also engage. And I think that's going to happen. It's beginning to happen. Of course, it's been happening for many years at one level. But as I said, I think it's inadequate given our geographic circumstances and the historical times we live in. Inevitably, we need to focus more on Southeast Asia.

Now we've been a bit distracted with the Pacific for good reasons. The Pacific is our backyard. It's the region where we feel that we can make the biggest impact. And the sort of strategic competition that has been developing in that part of the world has engaged us very strongly. So a lot of political capital, a lot of resources, money, but also people. The number of people that DFAT now has in our office of the Pacific compared to when I was working in the Pacific is quite extraordinary. And that comes at an expense, right? Because it's almost a zero-sum game. The more effort and attention you pay to one region, the less you have for the rest. I think that'll rebalance over time. And I've always believed that our fundamental strategic interests as well as our economic interests do lie in Southeast Asia.

And so the direction of travel, as you put it, I'm starting to see some small, not shifts, but accelerations. So in the university sector, a number of universities are now talking about either establishing or reviving or refreshing their Southeast Asian think tanks – the centers that they have focusing on Southeast Asia. I'm beginning to see more interest from the superannuation community. When I was in Vietnam just middle of last year, we hosted a big delegation of superannuation players who also went to Indonesia and elsewhere. It was kind of a very preliminary testing of the waters because their mandates are very restrictive. And Vietnam isn't yet even considered an emerging economy in terms of its ratings as an investment destination. But they're starting to show interest, and I think that will continue to accelerate.

The other way also is positive. Southeast Asia kind of knows us better than we know them, and partly because we have a huge alumni community there. I mean, Malaysia, we were just talking about, it's somewhere north of four hundred thousand people have studied in Australia or studied at Australian universities in Malaysia. That creates an enormous body of goodwill and interest in Australia. You know, I'm hoping that our more restrictive student policies now in Australia don't impinge negatively on that because it's that kind of people-to-people knowledge, confidence, and familiarity which then does enable other things like investment to happen.

VALUE PROPOSITION AND STRATEGIC NAR