In this episode of the Vienna Coffee House Conversations, Ivan Vejvoda hosts Kim Lane Scheppele, the Lawrence S. Rockefeller Professor of Sociology and International Affairs at Princeton University. With a particular focus on the example of Hungary under Orbán, they explore the rise of populism, identity politics, and nationalism, and point out the threats these pose to democracy - especially when leaders exploit the legal frameworks of democratic institutions to entrench and extend their power. How can populism corrupt a democratic state into an autocracy?

Synopsis:
The Difference Between Populism and Autocracy
Vejvoda asks Scheppele to explain the distinction between populism and autocracy.
Scheppele outlines how populism involves appeals to intolerance and creating second-class citizenships, while autocracy involves changing laws to entrench power and eliminate opposition. She emphasizes that not all populist leaders seek dictatorship, but many use populist slogans to justify autocratic actions.

Viktor Orbán's Use of Legal Mechanisms
Vejvoda inquires about Orbán's use of legal mechanisms to consolidate power in Hungary.
Scheppele details how Orbán manipulated Hungary’s electoral system to gain a supermajority, allowing him to change the constitution, capture courts, sideline the parliament, and alter election laws to entrench his power. She explains the systematic dismantling of democratic checks and balances through legal means.

The European Union’s Role in Addressing Democratic Backslides
Vejvoda questions the EU’s effectiveness in addressing democratic backslides in Hungary and Poland.
Scheppele discusses the EU’s struggle to respond effectively, noting that Orbán's actions were legal, making intervention difficult. In contrast, Poland’s government openly violated its constitution, prompting a stronger EU response. She highlights the EU’s slow and inconsistent actions due to other priorities, like the euro crisis.

Changes in Hungary's Political Atmosphere Since the 1990s
Vejvoda asks about the political changes in Hungary from the 1990s to the present.
Scheppele reflects on Hungary’s pro-European, democratic atmosphere in the 1990s, characterized by strong support for European values and institutions like the Constitutional Court. She contrasts this with the current autocratic shift under Orbán, driven by systematic legal and political changes.

Strategies for Opposition and Civil Society
Vejvoda inquires about effective strategies for opposition parties and civil society.
Scheppele suggests mobilizing urban voters, protecting independent media, and promoting education to counteract autocratic trends. She emphasizes the importance of exposing and resisting clientelist policies used by autocrats to buy votes and maintain power.

Economic Policies in Populist Strategies
Vejvoda asks how economic policies play into the strategies of populist leaders like Orbán.
Scheppele explains that populist leaders use targeted social programs to benefit their base while excluding marginalized groups. In Hungary, Orbán’s programs, such as tax credits for families, are designed to benefit middle-class Hungarians and exclude Roma families, ensuring loyalty from his supporters.

The EU’s Response to Orbán’s Leadership and Hungary’s EU Presidency
Vejvoda discusses the EU’s response to Orbán’s leadership, especially with Hungary’s upcoming EU presidency.
Scheppele describes the EU’s challenges in dealing with Orbán, who leverages Hungary’s EU membership for financial gains while pursuing autocratic policies. She notes the potential risks and opportunities during Hungary’s EU presidency and the importance of the EU navigating this carefully to uphold democratic values.

Implications for Upcoming Elections in France and the United States
Vejvoda questions the implications of current trends for upcoming elections in France and the U.S.
Scheppele highlights the challenges posed by populist and nationalist movements, emphasizing the fragility of democratic systems. She expresses concerns about the U.S. electoral system’s complexity and vulnerabilities, which could be exploited, posing a threat to democratic outcomes. She stresses the need for vigilance and robust democratic engagement to safeguard these elections.

The Role of Media in Autocratic Strategies
Vejvoda asks about the role of media in autocratic strategies.
Scheppele discusses the importance of media control for autocrats, highlighting how Orbán has suppressed liberal media and promoted government-friendly outlets. This control influences public opinion and limits the opposition’s ability to communicate effectively with the public.

Urban-Rural Divides in Political Affiliations
Vejvoda inquires about the significance of urban-rural divides in the context of rising populism.
Scheppele explains that urban areas tend to be more liberal and educated, while rural areas often support populist leaders. This divide is exploited by autocrats who implement policies favoring rural areas and suppress urban opposition through financial constraints and media control. She emphasizes the need for opposition strategies to address these divides effectively.