In this episode of the Vienna Coffee House Conversations podcast, host Ivan Vejvoda engages in an insightful discussion with Sławomir Sierakowski, a Polish sociologist, literary critic, journalist, and public intellectual. Sierakowski, who heads Kritika Polityczna and serves as a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspectives on the state of democracy in Europe, Poland's political landscape, and the broader global context, including the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the geopolitical shifts in Asia.

The episode begins with Ivan welcoming Słavwomir, acknowledging his distinguished career and ongoing contributions to European intellectual and political discourse. The conversation opens with a discussion on the current political moment in Europe, focusing on recent elections in France and Poland. Sławomir reflects on the mixed results of these elections, particularly noting the positive outcome in Poland, where authoritarianism was successfully challenged in the recent parliamentary elections. He emphasizes that Poland is rejoining democratic Europe, aligning itself with countries that uphold the rule of law and democratic norms. However, he cautions that challenges remain, particularly with authoritarian trends in countries like Hungary.
Key Points of Discussion:

The State of Democracy in Europe:
Question: Ivan asks Sławomir about the current political situation in Europe, with a focus on elections and the rising tensions between liberal democracy and authoritarianism.
Answer: Sławomir expresses a nuanced view, acknowledging positive developments, such as Poland's electoral defeat of authoritarian forces, but also highlighting ongoing concerns about Hungary and other regions. He notes that while populism has not caused a major revolution, it remains a significant challenge in the fight for democracy in Europe.

China's Geopolitical Position:
Question: Shifting the focus to Asia, Ivan asks Sławomir to elaborate on his observations regarding China, particularly Xi Jinping's leadership and its implications for global politics.
Answer: Sławomir outlines two major shifts under Xi Jinping: China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy and its move toward state-organized protectionism. He contrasts this with previous Chinese leaders who adhered to a more cautious approach. He also highlights internal challenges in China, such as economic issues, and stresses that China's position is more vulnerable than it appears, especially in its relations with neighboring countries like Japan and Taiwan.

Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific:
Question: Ivan inquires about Sławomir's recent trip to Taiwan and asks for his impressions regarding Taiwan's outlook amidst tensions with China.
Answer: Sławomir describes the complex political dynamics in Taiwan, where the pro-China Kuomintang party holds significant influence. However, he points out that the majority of Taiwanese citizens are opposed to unification with China, especially after the events in Hong Kong. He emphasizes Taiwan’s strategic importance due to its dominance in semiconductor manufacturing and its growing defense capabilities.

Europe’s Role in Global Geopolitics:
Question: Ivan brings the discussion back to Europe, asking what Europe should be doing in this evolving global context.
Answer: Sławomir argues that Europe needs to adopt a tougher stance, both internally and externally. He criticizes the EU for its history of slow decision-making and compromise, urging it to take bolder steps, especially in supporting Ukraine militarily and financially. He sees Poland under Donald Tusk as a potential leader in driving this change, highlighting Tusk’s experience and commitment to European integration.

The De-Authoritarianization of Poland:
Question: Ivan asks how the process of dismantling authoritarian structures in Poland is progressing following the recent electoral victory over the PiS party.
Answer: Sławomir explains that the process is slow, as the new government is committed to upholding democratic norms and the rule of law, which requires careful and legal dismantling of authoritarian systems. He also points out that the Polish president and judiciary, still influenced by the former ruling party, present ongoing challenges to this process.

The Future of the EU and Ukraine:
Question: Ivan shifts focus to the EU’s enlargement and the potential integration of Ukraine. He asks Sławomir how realistic it is to bring Ukraine into the EU, given the complexities involved.
Answer: Sławomir acknowledges the difficulties of integrating Ukraine into the EU, especially during a time of war. However, he stresses the importance of supporting Ukraine’s accession to both the EU and NATO to prevent future Russian aggression. He warns that any compromise with Russia that allows it to retain control over parts of Ukraine would be a dangerous signal to other authoritarian regimes.

Populism and the Impact of AI:
Question: Ivan raises concerns about rising populism driven by economic uncertainty and technological changes, such as the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on jobs and society.
Answer: Sławomir notes that AI and overinvestment in technology could trigger a financial crisis, which historically has led to the rise of populist movements. He warns that a global recession could exacerbate these issues, creating a more volatile political landscape across Europe and beyond.

Poland’s Role in European Politics:
Question: Ivan asks how Poland can position itself as a leader in European politics, particularly in the context of its relationship with Ukraine and its internal political challenges.
Answer: Sławomir sees potential for Poland to take a more active role in European politics, especially under Donald Tusk’s leadership. However, he cautions that internal polarization and conflicts between political factions in Poland could limit its ability to fully realize this potential. He also mentions the historical tensions between Poland and Ukraine, which continue to complicate their relationship.

Hungary and Slovakia’s Influence on the EU:
Question: Ivan addresses the challenge posed by Hungary and Slovakia, whose populist governments have the power to block EU decisions, and asks Sławomir for his thoughts on how the EU should handle this situation.
Answer: Sławomir highlights the danger of Hungary and Slovakia obstructing EU policies, particularly regarding Ukraine. He argues that the EU needs to reform its decision-making processes to prevent single countries from blocking critical initiatives. He warns that without such reforms, the EU could be paralyzed by populist leaders.

Conclusion:

The episode concludes with a reflection on the complex challenges facing Europe and the world. Sławomir stresses the importance of strong, decisive leadership in Europe to navigate these turbulent times. He expresses hope that Poland, under Tusk’s leadership, can play a key role in shaping Europe’s future. Ivan thanks Sławomir for his insights, and the conversation ends with a mutual commitment to continue addressing these critical issues in future discussions.