Exercise has long been hailed as cancer-fighting magic, but is there hard evidence behind the hype? In this episode, we tackle the CHALLENGE trial, a large phase III study of colon cancer patients that tested whether prescribed exercise could improve cancer-free survival. We translate clinical jargon into plain English, show why ratio statistics make splashy headlines while absolute differences tell the real story, and take a detour into why statisticians think survival analysis is downright sexy. And we even bring in a classic reality show to make sense of the numbers.

Statistical topics

• Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB)
• Hazard ratios
• Intention-to-treat analysis
• Interim analyses
• Kaplan-Meier curves
• Phase III trials
• Randomized clinical trial
• Rates and rate ratios
• Relative vs absolute differences
• Stratified randomization with minimization
• Survival analysis
• Time-to-event variables

Methodological morals

• “Ratio statistics sell headlines. Absolute differences sell truth.”
• “Survival analysis is this sexy stats tool that makes every moment and every Cox count.”

References

• Courneya KS, Vardy JL, O'Callaghan CJ, et al. Structured Exercise after Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Colon Cancer. NEJM. 2025;393:13-25. 
• Rabin RC. Are Marathons and Extreme Running Linked to Colon Cancer? The New York Times. Aug 19, 2025.
• Sainani KL. Introduction to survival analysis. PM&R. 2016;  8:58 0-85.
• Sainani KL. Making sense of intention-to-treat. PM&R. 2010;2:20 9-13.

Thanks

Thanks to Caitlin Goodrich for the episode topic tip!

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00 ) - Intro
  


• (05:42 ) - Two different types of cancer studies
  


• (08:12 ) - Why might exercise affect cancer?
  


• (10:05 ) - Phase III trials are different
  


• (12:40 ) - Who was in the CHALLENGE trial?
  


• (13:31 ) - Stratified randomization with minimization
  


• (15:05 ) - The exercise prescription
  


• (18:23 ) - What did the CHALLENGE trial measure?
  


• (19:10 ) - Disease-free survival
  


• (21:05 ) - Data and Safety Monitoring Board – what do they do?
  


• (23:41 ) - Participants and adherence to exercise
  


• (26:00 ) - Intention-to-treat analysis
  


• (29:04 ) - Survival analysis overview
  


• (30:57 ) - Kaplan-Meier curves
  


• (33:33 ) - Reality-show analogy
  


• (36:00 ) - Ratio statistics are confusing
  


• (38:36 ) - Hazard ratios
  


• (46:09 ) - Wrap-up, rating, and methodological morals