Can correcting misinformation make it worse? The “backfire effect” claims that debunking myths can actually make false beliefs stronger. We dig into the evidence — from ghost studies to headline-making experiments — to see if this psychological plot twist really holds up. Along the way, we unpack interaction effects, randomization red flags, and what happens when bad citations take on a life of their own. Plus: dirty talk analogies, statistical sleuthing, and why “familiarity” might be your brain’s sneakiest trick.

Statistical topics

• Computational replication
• Replication
• Block randomization
• Problems in randomization
• Bad citing
• Interactions in regression

Unpublished "Ghost Paper"

• PDF retrieved from the Wayback Machine

Citations

• Nyhan B, Reifler J. When corrections fail: The persistence of political misperceptions. Political Behavior. 2010;32:30 3–330.
• Skurnik I, Yoon C, Schwarz N. “Myths & Facts” about the flu: Health education campaigns can reduce vaccination intentions. Unpublished manuscript, PDF posted separately.
• Schwarz N, Sanna LJ, Skurnik I, et al. Metacognitive experiences and the intricacies of setting people straight: Implications for debiasing and public information campaigns. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 2007;39:12 7–61.
• Lewandowsky S, Ecker UKH, Seifert CM, et al. Misinformation and its correction: Continued influence and successful debiasing. Psychological Science in the Public Interest. 2012;13:10 6–131.
• Pluviano S, Watt C, Della Sala S. Misinformation lingers in memory: Failure of three pro-vaccination strategies. PLOS ONE. 2017;12:e0181640.
• Pluviano S, Watt C, Ragazzini G, et al. Parents’ beliefs in misinformation about vaccines are strengthened by pro‑vaccine campaigns. Cognitive Processing. 2019;20:32 5–31.
• Wood T, Porter E. The elusive backfire effect: Mass attitudes’ steadfast factual adherence. Political Behavior. 2019;41:13 5–63.
• Nyhan B, Porter E, Reifler J, Wood TJ. Taking fact-checks literally but not seriously? The effects of journalistic fact-checking on factual beliefs and candidate favorability. Political Behavior. 2020;42:93 9–60.
• Ecker UKH, Hogan JL, Lewandowsky S. Reminders and repetition of misinformation: Helping or hindering its retraction? Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. 2017;6:18 5–92.
• Swire B, Ecker UKH, Lewandowsky S. The role of familiarity in correcting inaccurate information. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 2017;43:19 48–61.
• Ecker UKH, O’Donnell M, Ang LC, et al. The effectiveness of short- and long-format retractions on misinformation belief and recall. British Journal of Psychology. 2020;111:36 –54.
• Ecker UKH, Sharkey CXM, Swire-Thompson B. Correcting vaccine misinformation: A failure to replicate familiarity or fear-driven backfire effects. PLOS ONE. 2023;18:e0281140.
• Cook J, Lewandowsky S. The Debunking Handbook. University of Queensland. 2011.
• Lewandowsky S, Cook J, Ecker UKH, et al. The Debunking Handbook 2020. Available at https://sks.to/db2020. 
• Swire‑Thompson B, DeGutis J, Lazer D. Searching for the backfire effect: Measurement and design considerations. Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition. 2020;9:28 6–99.

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

• Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  
• Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 
• Medical Statistics Certificate Program  
• Writing in the Sciences 
• Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

• Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

• (00:00 ) -


• (00:00 ) - Intro
  


• (02:05 ) - What is the backfire effect?
  


• (03:55 ) - The 2010 paper that panicked fact-checkers
  


• (06:25 ) - The ghost paper what it really said
  


• (12:35 ) - Study design of the 2010 paper
  


• (19:19 ) - Results of the 2010 paper
  


• (20:49 ) - Crossover interactions, regression models, and intimate talk
  


• (26:18 ) - Missing data and cleaning your bedroom analogy
  


• (29:05 ) - Fact-checking the fact-checking paper
  


• (34:01 ) - Replication and pushing the data to the limit
  


• (37:53 ) - The purported backfire effect spreads
  


• (42:00 ) - The 2017 paper that got a lot of attention
  


• (45:19 ) - Statistical sleuthing the 2017 paper
  


• (49:45 ) - Will researchers double down on their earlier conclusions?
  


• (55:40 ) - A review paper sums it all up
  


• (56:54 ) - Wrap up, rating, and methodological morals