Fed Rate Futures: Steady Pause or Two Cuts?
Update: 2025-12-10
Description
Federal funds rate futures suggest a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at its upcoming January meeting, with a seventy-eight percent probability of a pause. Despite the Feds projection of one rate cut in 2026, the futures market anticipates two cuts, indicating a federal funds rate of three percent. This discrepancy between the Fed and market expectations is evident in the diverse views among policymakers, with six officials not supporting the recent quarter-point rate cut, suggesting a year-end rate of three nine percent for 2025.
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