Recording date: 2nd October 2025

Welcome back to Compass, Olive Resource Capital’s weekly markets and portfolio insights show, hosted by Derek MacPherson (Executive Chairman) and Sam Pelaez (President, CEO & CIO). Each week, we cut through the noise in mining and metals, highlighting the most important macro developments and drilling down into the companies shaping our portfolio.

In this episode, we unpack a week of pivotal news for both major gold producers and junior explorers. At the very top of the market, Newmont and Barrick—two of the world’s largest gold companies—announced leadership changes on the same day. Newmont’s move was a planned succession from COO to CEO, signaling stability and continuity as the company enters a new phase of growth. Barrick, however, surprised the market with an interim appointment following the sudden departure of Mark Bristow. This contrast highlights the broader cycle shift from defensive, balance-sheet-focused leadership to growth-oriented CEOs ready to capitalise on a bull gold market.

The coincidence of both announcements has reignited speculation about deeper industrial alignment. With Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo already jointly operated, strategic synergies are clear. A combined or further integrated entity could also benefit from passive investment flows, with Newmont’s S&P 500 inclusion forcing index-tracking funds to increase their exposure. While no deal has been announced, the industrial and financial rationale for closer alignment between Newmont and Barrick is stronger than ever.

Beyond the majors, the week delivered extraordinary news from Olive’s portfolio companies. Sterling Metals announced a discovery hole at its Soo Copper project in Ontario - 262 metres at 1% copper equivalent—re-rating the stock by more than 200% in a single day. Years of geological groundwork positioned the company for this success, underscoring the importance of disciplined preparation.

Prospector Metals delivered another standout intercept: 44 metres at 13 g/t gold with 1.8% copper at its Mike Lake project. Shares surged nearly 280% and have held those gains. As part of the Discovery Group, Prospector demonstrated how systematic geological work and strong stewardship can unlock transformative discoveries.

By contrast, Midnight Sun Mining illustrates the risk of overextended valuations. The company reported nearly 40 metres at .5% copper from its Dumbwa target in Zambia, yet shares fell around 20% as the market had already priced in perfection. The case highlights why entry point and expectations matter as much as geological success.

The financing environment also shows renewed strength, with over C$100 million raised across juniors in the past week. With seasonal drill programs now underway, investors should expect a steady cadence of results through year-end. Majors may also lean further into M&A, project acceleration, and capital returns as gold prices remain near record highs.