BARRY RITHOLTZ’s new book “How Not to Invest” has received a warm reception. We talk about investing mistakes, the Trump Tariffs, and curating a good media diet.

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“How Not To Invest” Transcript

Frazer Rice (00:03 )
Welcome aboard, Barry.

Barry (00:04 )
Well, thanks so much for having me, Frasier.

Frazer Rice (00:06 )
Well, we are recording in the midst of chaos and disorder. We’re basically in day three, trading day three of the tariffs and trying to understand all of that. But back at the matter of hand, your new book, I read it really good. I thought it did a really good job of sort of colloquially putting some process and structure around not making bad investing decisions. Tell me a little bit about the impetus for the book.

Barry (00:35 )
Sure, so the last book, Bailout Nation, was 15 years ago when I’ve had a lot of friends and family say, when’s the next book coming? And, you know, I had a little, like, hey, that was kind of a slog, stuff blowing up and forcing me to rewrite entire sections of the book every time some new company went belly up. And I came home from Christmas break from vacation.

You have that dead zone a few days before you’re back in the office January 2nd. And I just started thumbing through some old quarterly calls for clients and research notes and market commentaries. You know, I had moved the blog from GeoCities in the nineties to Typepad in the two thousands to WordPress in the 2010s. And so I was looking at some of these old things and like, God, I never revisited this.

This is such a great piece of research. I love this academic take on where alpha or even beta comes from. And I’m just kind of mulling it over. I start writing down chapter ideas on three by five cards like these. And I end up using this giant bulletin board on my wall. It just basically I start putting stuff up and I start rearranging them.

And pretty soon it becomes obvious. Hey, these ideas, a lot of them are don’ts. Don’t do this. Don’t do that. Avoid this. Try not to make this bad mistake. And ultimately, I kind of came to the conclusion that, know, we’ve part of the reason I held off writing a book is there have been tens of thousands of investing books telling people what to do. And we’re all pretty mediocre investors still.

Maybe it might be useful if we learned what not to do and thus “how not to invest” was born.

Frazer Rice (02:35 )
We found kind of an interesting crucible to test all of this with sort of Trump’s tariff initiatives and a bunch of chaos on that front. As you think about what we’re living in right now with uncertainty, whether manufactured or not, what are some of the top things that you think about that you tell people, your clients and otherwise?

to keep in mind as we sort of weather this storm and try to learn a little bit about what the future is going to look like.

Barry (03:06 )
Right. I had no idea what what the sequel would be named. Maybe it could be how not to run an economy or what we’ll play with that. But so so what’s happening these days are kind of fascinating because the first third of the book I spent a lot of time talking about how little we really know about about what’s happening right now. And we learn even less about the future. And so our

Frazer Rice (03:12 )
Ha

Barry (03:34 )
A hot take on these things is maybe we shouldn’t build portfolios based on having to predict where the economy is going to be, what the hot sector is going to be, where the hot geography is going to be, what the best companies are. Maybe we need to be a little more robust and capable of withstanding this. And the tariffs are a perfect example of how little we know. Look, the obvious examples of “How Not to Invest”

Nobody had heading into 2020 in their year had forecast global pandemic that shuts the world’s economy. And by the way, stocks go straight up. They just after a 34 percent crash, they go straight up from there. Nobody had that. Nobody had Russia invading it. Ukraine, Israel Hamas war, 500 basis points of Fed hiking, double digit losses in stocks and bonds in the same year. So when you look at all the annual predictions,

You would think we would be a little more humble, have a little more humility about this. And the ironic thing about what’s going on, I keep pointing to the television. The ironic thing about what’s going on is like this should have been completely foreseeable. It’s a failure of our own imaginations to imagine anyone would do this. Trump, for his whole adult career, has been enamored and enthusiastic about tariffs.

He calls himself Tariff Man. He ran on tariffs and he tried like half a dozen different rationales. We’ll protect domestic industry, we’ll protect our borders, we’ll reduce bad things coming into the country, we’ll get other countries to lower their tariffs and cover more of their own defense costs. Like he said all of this and collectively, and I include myself in this, nobody had the slightest idea that, and he will

Completely upend the world’s economic order. He will tear the band-aids off of long-standing allies and relationships and supply chains and all these things in pursuit of a goal that I don’t think a whole lot of people think makes a lot of sense and the market obviously Was wholly unprepared what we see going on now is simply the market saying hey

The price today is our expectation of profits and revenues a year forward times some multiple, which typically reflects collective psychology. And we thought the revenues and profits are going to be much higher. This new regime is going to make everything more expensive. It’s going to reduce consumer spending.

They’ll have less discretionary cash, less capex spending, less hiring. let’s ratchet our GDP expectations down, you know, 100, 200 basis points. And so it just goes to show you nobody knows what’s coming. Even after a presidential candidate says this is what I’m going to do. We still can’t wrap our heads around.

Frazer Rice (06:41 )
One of the things I think too is, you know, I don’t really ascribe genius to Trump on anything, certainly not economically. I don’t even put it to him politically, but he is in the same sentence as P.T. Barnum as far as understanding ratings and media. And I…

Barry (06:55 )
No, he’s a genius. I will tell you, he in his own way has an incredible feel for what excites the public. As did P.T. Barnum. He knows exactly how to get people enthusiastic. He knows how to craft a message. Just look at his performance in all the debates.

He has this incredibly intuitive sense of here’s how to catch people’s attention, keep their attention, and get them behind a story. Now, whether that story is rational or makes sense or, you know, forget even heterodoxy, whether it can be done, that’s another conversation. But credit where credit is due, he’s a communication genius. And you mentioned P.T. Barnum, another showman of the highest order. Trump is a brilliant

Showman, we can have another discussion about how effective he is as a steward of the economy and every time he’s won an election, he’s won against a weak unpopular candidate, both times a woman, he’s never been able to beat a man, he’s able to tap into

a certain angst and a certain anger that exists at a certain level of the country and it’s kind of fascinating. mean hold the disaster that is this past week aside. There is something fascinating about watching a master at work even if it’s towards ends that seem to really be damaging the US and global economy.

Frazer Rice (08:46 )
Yeah, I mean the other part too is I mean he’s very good at declaring victory or jettisoning things that aren’t working very quickly and moving on and sometimes leaving a path of destruction in his wake that everyone else has to fix.

Barry (09:01 )
No doubt about that and you know when you look at when you look at what’s been going on here They keep coming out like my best-case scenario here is no no this is a negotiating tactic There’ll be a whole bunch of side deals You know we’ll cut a deal with Israel because there’s a special relationship there and then something will happen with the UK and then Korea and Japan and before you know it like When we look at what’s going on now

No one really believes that we expect the trade deficit with Vietnam to be closed. I mean, if everybody in Vietnam spent every last penny of their salaries buying U.S. goods, it still wouldn’t close the trade deficit. Unless you’re going to get a Ford F-150 pickup truck, unless you’re get three of the