DiscoverNorbert’s Wealth DomeIris Energy (IREN) Stock Analysis | $9.7B Microsoft Deal, AI Cloud Pivot & Massive Rally Explained
Iris Energy (IREN) Stock Analysis | $9.7B Microsoft Deal, AI Cloud Pivot & Massive Rally Explained

Iris Energy (IREN) Stock Analysis | $9.7B Microsoft Deal, AI Cloud Pivot & Massive Rally Explained

Update: 2025-11-11
Share

Description

Good morning traders and investors — I’m Norbert B.M., and welcome back to Wealth Dome, where we build and protect wealth.

Today we’re breaking down one of the most surprising stories in the AI and infrastructure world — Iris Energy (IREN).

Formerly a Bitcoin mining company, Iris has transformed into a full-fledged AI data center operator, powered by renewable energy and secured by a $9.7 billion multi-year deal with Microsoft (MSFT).

The result? A stock that’s up nearly 480% year-to-date.But is this sustainable — or is IREN getting ahead of itself?

Let’s dive in 👇

⚙️ From Bitcoin to AI Cloud: The Pivot

Originally focused on crypto mining, Iris Energy now uses its vertically integrated power infrastructure to host large-scale GPU clusters in renewable-rich regions.

This transition has shifted IREN from volatile mining profits to high-margin, recurring cloud revenue.

“It’s not a crypto story anymore — it’s an AI infrastructure story.”

💰 The $9.7B Microsoft Partnership

This is the crown jewel of Iris’s business pivot.

* Contract Size: $9.7B over five years

* Partner: Microsoft (MSFT)

* Purpose: Deliver and operate NVIDIA GB300 GPU clusters for AI and data workloads

* Revenue Backlog Visibility: Extremely high — rare for a company of this size

“AI startups dream of this kind of guaranteed revenue stream.”

This deal effectively transforms Iris Energy into a miniature AI cloud provider with a powerful client base and long-term cash visibility.

📊 Financial Snapshot (Q1 2026 Guidance)

MetricValueChange (YoY)Revenue$240M+335%Net Income$384MHuge turnaroundNet Margin160%ExceptionalFree Float Shares254M—Long-Term Debt$60MManageablePE Ratio31Reasonable for growthP/S Ratio32High but justified by backlog

This is massive growth, but remember — markets move on expectations, not just results.

📉 Valuation vs Peers

CompanyPE5-Year AvgCommentIris Energy (IREN)31−2.7From loss to profitBitmain−35696Volatile mining modelApplied Digital (APLD)−44−124UnprofitableMarathon Digital (MARA)65200+Still speculative

IREN clearly leads its group — but the valuation premium reflects that.

“Investors are paying for the AI narrative — not the current numbers.”

⚠️ Execution Risks

* Speed of buildout: Any delay in data center expansion could hurt sentiment.

* Power access: Large-scale GPU clusters require reliable, renewable energy.

* Supply constraints: NVIDIA GPU shortages could slow deployment.

* Overvaluation: Traditional DCF puts IREN closer to $25/share, far below its current $69/share.

“The story is strong — but the stock price may be sprinting ahead of reality.”

📈 Technical Analysis

* Daily Chart: Above 50-day MA, pierced 20-day recently — short-term correction likely.

* Weekly RSI: 83 (massively overbought)

* MACD: Bearish divergence — potential correction setup.

* Support Levels: $60 → $50 → $35 major long-term zone

* Resistance: $70–$75 range

“The chart suggests a healthy correction is coming. Long-term bulls should wait for re-entry near $35–$45.”

🧭 Trading Viewpoint

* For Swing Traders: Avoid chasing — wait for RSI reset below 50.

* For Long-Term Investors: Hold small position; scale in during 20–30% dips.

* For Risk-Takers: Watch $21–$25 as the deep value accumulation zone.

“If IREN revisits the $20s — that’s where smart money steps in again.”

💬 Personal Take

“I hold a small position in IREN, but I’m waiting for a deeper correction before adding. Growth stories like this often retrace hard before the next run.”

📊 Mentioned Stocks

IREN, MSFT, NVDA, BITF, APLD, MARA, BTCUSD

🔗 Relevant Links

* Iris Energy Investor Relations

* Microsoft IR

* Wealth Dome YouTube Channel

💡 Final Thoughts

Iris Energy has done what few crypto miners could — reinvent themselves into AI infrastructure providers.The fundamentals are improving, but valuation risk remains high.

“Be patient. AI and energy convergence is real — but let the market give you a discount.”



This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe
Comments 
In Channel
loading
00:00
00:00
x

0.5x

0.8x

1.0x

1.25x

1.5x

2.0x

3.0x

Sleep Timer

Off

End of Episode

5 Minutes

10 Minutes

15 Minutes

30 Minutes

45 Minutes

60 Minutes

120 Minutes

Iris Energy (IREN) Stock Analysis | $9.7B Microsoft Deal, AI Cloud Pivot & Massive Rally Explained

Iris Energy (IREN) Stock Analysis | $9.7B Microsoft Deal, AI Cloud Pivot & Massive Rally Explained

Norbert B.M.