Is Kamala Harris’ Press Strategy Depriving Voters — Or Just Journalists? Plus, Understanding Election Polls.
1Digest
The podcast delves into various aspects of contemporary political and economic issues. It begins by examining Kamala Harris's media strategy, discussing the debate surrounding her limited appearances and the potential implications for voters. The podcast then explores the evolution of election polling since 2016, highlighting the shift to online surveys, the increased use of weighting, and the need to adjust the margin of error. Finally, the podcast examines the economic impact of tariffs, focusing on the "China Shock" and the effects of tariffs on American workers and the price of goods. The podcast provides a nuanced perspective on these complex issues, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the United States in the 21st century.
Outlines
Political Strategies and Media Coverage
The podcast analyzes Kamala Harris's media strategy, discussing the debate surrounding her limited appearances and the potential implications for voters.
The Evolution of Election Polling
The podcast explores the changes in election polling since 2016, including the shift to online surveys, the increased use of weighting, and the need to double the reported margin of error.
The Economic Impact of Tariffs
The podcast examines the economic impact of tariffs, particularly those imposed by the Trump and Biden administrations. It discusses the "China Shock" and how tariffs have affected American workers and the price of goods.
Keywords
China Shock
The economic disruption caused by China's rapid economic growth and its entry into the global market, leading to increased competition and job losses in certain sectors.
Tariffs
Taxes imposed on imported goods, intended to protect domestic industries but often leading to higher prices for consumers and retaliatory measures from other countries.
Weighting
A statistical adjustment applied to survey results to ensure that the sample accurately reflects the characteristics of the population, such as age, gender, and race.
Margin of Error
A statistical measure of the uncertainty in a survey result, reflecting the potential for sampling error and other sources of variation.
Gotchya Question
A question designed to trap a respondent into making a statement that can be used against them, often based on a false or misleading premise.
Q&A
Why has Kamala Harris chosen to limit her media appearances?
Some argue that she is depriving voters of essential insights into her character and policies, while others believe she is strategically avoiding the traps of the political press.
How have election polls changed since 2016?
Polls are now conducted more online, pollsters are using more weighting variables, and the reported margin of error should be doubled to account for additional sources of error.
What is the "China Shock" and how has it impacted the US economy?
The "China Shock" refers to the economic disruption caused by China's rapid economic growth and its entry into the global market. It has led to increased competition and job losses in certain sectors, particularly manufacturing.
What is the economic impact of tariffs?
Tariffs have been shown to increase the price of goods for consumers and have not been effective in bringing back manufacturing jobs. They have also led to retaliatory measures from other countries, further disrupting global trade.
How can news consumers best navigate the uncertainty surrounding election polls?
Approach polls with skepticism, especially those with small margins of error or those conducted by partisan organizations. Focus on state-level polls and consider the electoral college when evaluating potential outcomes.
Show Notes
Kamala Harris has come under fire for ignoring interview requests from the press. On this week’s On the Media, the debate over whether giving media access actually helps inform voters. Plus, a guide to understanding election polls, and how they’ve evolved since the failures of 2016 and 2020.
[01:00 ] Host Brooke Gladstone explores a rising complaint from some in the political press that Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t engaging enough with reporters, featuring: Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post columnist, Matt Bai, a journalist at the Washington Post who has interviewed many presidential candidates, and David Lurie, a contributing writer for Public Notice.
[19:57 ] Host Micah Loewinger speaks to Courtney Kennedy, Vice President of Methods and Innovation at Pew Research Center, to reassess our Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook on polls and answer the age-old question: should we care about them at all?
[34:26 ] Host Micah Loewinger speaks with Gordon Hanson, an economist and a co-director of the Reimagining the Economy Project at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, about why tariffs have rebounded in political popularity amongst Democrats and Republicans.
Further reading:
- “Harris should talk to journalists more. Particularly the wonky ones,” by Perry Bacon Jr.
- “The media gets nothing from Kamala Harris. That’s mostly on us,” by Matt Bai
- “Kamala Harris is cutting off Trump’s political oxygen,” by David Lurie
- “Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024,” by Scott Keeter and Courtney Kennedy
- “Washington’s New Trade Consensus: And What It Gets Wrong,” by Gordon Hanson
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