Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josef Schachter to the show. Josef Schachter is the Founder of Schachter Asset Management Inc. The discussion centers on the current and future state of the global energy market, with a particular focus on oil and natural gas dynamics.

Schachter provides a nuanced view of the oil market, noting both near-term challenges and long-term bullish potential. In the short term, he anticipates oil prices potentially dropping to the $56-$58 range due to significant global inventories. However, he sees a compelling long-term narrative driven by fundamental supply constraints and declining global reserves, which require approximately 5-6 million barrels of new production annually just to maintain current levels.

He highlights critical challenges in the energy sector, including underinvestment and lengthy development timelines. Schachter emphasizes that new production requires extensive infrastructure, environmental approvals, and significant capital expenditure. He believes this complexity will contribute to a potential energy supercycle, potentially seeing oil prices exceed the 2008 peak of $147 per barrel. Canada emerges as a key focus, with Schachter noting the country’s substantial energy resources and potential for growth. He suggests that Canadian energy companies offer attractive investment opportunities, particularly those with strong balance sheets, exploration potential, and dividend yields ranging from 5-10%.

Geopolitical factors and technological innovations play a significant role in Schachter’s analysis. He discusses how new extraction technologies, such as fracking and advanced offshore drilling, continue to unlock previously inaccessible energy resources. Additionally, he sees potential risks in global trade tensions and potential economic slowdowns that could impact energy demand. Looking forward, Schachter is optimistic about the energy sector’s potential, anticipating global oil demand increasing to 110-112 million barrels per day by 2030. He recommends investors consider diversified exposure across oil, natural gas, and service industries, with investment strategies tailored to individual risk profiles and income needs.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:03 – Oil Market Pressures

00:03:27 – Bullish Long-Term Forecast

00:06:15 – Energy Sector Underinvestment

00:09:14 – Supply Development Lags

00:13:05 – Historical Super Cycles

00:15:07 – Global Production Overview

00:17:00 – Canada’s Resource Potential

00:19:46 – Rejecting Peak Oil

00:22:25 – Natural Gas Challenges

00:24:47 – Investment Strategies Overview

00:31:00 – Valuation and Multiples

00:37:00 – Geopolitical Risk Factors

00:42:00 – Bull Thesis Risks

00:47:06 – Uranium Market Insights

00:50:35 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://schachterenergyreport.ca

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Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why.

Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call.

Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014.

Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.