Stijn Schmitz welcomes Sven Carlin to the show. Sven Carlin is Publisher of Value Investing YouTube, Podcast, & Research Platform. During their discussion, Carlin offers insights into various investment opportunities and his value investing philosophy across multiple sectors. Regarding gold, Carlin views the current market with caution, noting excessive speculation and ETF inflows. Sven suggests that while gold might reach $10,000 eventually, the current environment feels risky. He recommends maintaining a modest portfolio allocation and being willing to trim positions when sentiment becomes too exuberant.

In the broader market, Sven sees significant risks, particularly among technology stocks like NVIDIA. He questions the long-term durability of tech companies’ competitive advantages and warns about the potential for rapid disruption. He believes the current market is stretched, with cash flows declining as companies invest heavily in AI and other speculative technologies.

Carlin finds more attractive opportunities in overlooked sectors like agriculture and commodities. He appreciates businesses with predictable long-term growth, steady dividend yields, and reasonable price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasizes the importance of patience and maintaining a disciplined approach, especially when investing in cyclical industries.

His investment strategy focuses on finding undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, preferring businesses trading at low price-to-earnings multiples and offering consistent dividends. He maintains a diversified portfolio and is willing to slowly accumulate positions in sectors like oil, agriculture, and select international markets. A key principle for Carlin is understanding a company’s true value and being comfortable buying more when prices drop. He warns against getting caught up in growth narratives and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear-eyed view of a company’s actual competitive advantages and potential for long-term value creation.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:00 – Gold Market Outlook

00:04:00 – Gold Portfolio Allocation

00:05:30 – Gold Miners Challenges

00:09:30 – Value Investing Framework

00:11:00 – Broad Market Overvaluation

00:14:30 – AI Tech Risks

00:18:30 – Agriculture Sector Opportunities

00:21:00 – Oil and Gas Insights

00:25:30 – Iron Ore Cyclicals

00:30:30 – Healthcare Investment Views

00:35:00 – China and International Exposure

00:38:00 – Investor Patience Lessons

00:42:00 – Sven Carlin Platform

00:44:00 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://svencarlin.com

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Value-Investing

Research Platform: sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com

Podcast: https://svencarlin.com/podcasts

LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/sven-carlin-a7140487

Sven Carlin’s journey begins in the sun-drenched coastal city of Novigrad, Croatia, where the vivid blue Mediterranean Sea shaped his early years. A passionate diver, Sven spent his youth exploring underwater worlds alongside his close friend Erik Radin. Tragically, Erik’s untimely passing shifted Sven’s focus to his second love: research and investing.

This pivot culminated in a Ph.D. on emerging market stocks, where Sven developed the innovative Real Value Risk Model. His work is detailed in a summary article available on SSRN, offering fresh insights into volatile global equities.

Just before turning 30, Sven and his wife, Anata Bain (anatabain.com), sought new adventures. They relocated to London, where Sven landed a role at Bloomberg. Yet, the grind of 60+ hour weeks in a corporate environment—despite stunning city views and sharp colleagues—proved unfulfilling. Craving independence, they moved to the Netherlands.

There, Sven channeled his expertise into education, serving as a high school teacher during his Ph.D., then as a finance and accounting lecturer and assistant professor at the Amsterdam School of International Business and Amsterdam Fashion Institute. Passionate about sharing knowledge, he eventually embraced full autonomy.

Today, Sven is an independent researcher and investor, empowering fellow enthusiasts through his YouTube channel and the Stock Market Research Platform. As he puts it: “I love my family, I love my life, and I love what I do.”