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It wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening’
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.html

Bloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-march

Stanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Ahead
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htm

Christopher Waller Let’s Get On with It
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

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