OPEC Plus faces a critical decision at their upcoming meeting, with reports suggesting theyll pause further oil production cuts. However, experts warn this may not be enough to prevent an impending oil surplus, potentially driving down global prices. The group, which began cutting production in 2023, is currently withholding around 3.24 million barrels daily, a figure many analysts believe is insufficient to alleviate market fears of a glut. Forecasters predict a record-breaking surplus of four million barrels daily next year, with the International Energy Agency and JP Morgan warning of a severe and prolonged oversupply. Despite some member countries struggling to meet production targets, others like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have seen benefits from increased capacity. As OPEC Plus navigates these challenges, oil prices are expected to decline significantly by the end of 2025, largely due to oversupply expectations and the prospect of an end to the Ukraine conflict. Restoring trust in their data could be a crucial first step for the group.

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