Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Rally Near Record Highs Amid Rate-Cut Optimism

US equity markets rallied strongly during the Thanksgiving-shortened week, with all major indices posting solid gains as risk appetite improved. Dovish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, coupled with softer-than-expected economic data, reinforced growing expectations of a rate cut in December.

Indian equities traded resiliently last week, with benchmarks hovering near record highs amid optimism over prospective rate cuts and solid domestic growth.

India's real GDP growth surged to 8.2% in Q2 FY26—a six-quarter high that comfortably exceeded both last year's 5.6% and consensus forecasts. The upside surprise was driven by robust manufacturing and services output, firmer private consumption, and healthy investment activity, even as government capital expenditure remained relatively muted.

Near-term catalysts for our markets include the RBI policy meeting (3–5 December) and the US Federal Reserve decision (18–19 December), both likely to deliver rate cuts supportive of Indian equities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in New Delhi on December 4-5, 2025, for the annual India-Russia Summit. This is his first visit to India since the Ukraine war altered global alignments and defence supply chains.

Progress on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations would benefit emerging markets broadly, while clarity on US tariff policy would provide tailwinds to Indian capex and financials.

The next resistance for the Nifty is placed near 26,500, while support for the index is positioned in the 26,000–26,050 band.

Indian markets are poised to open modestly higher on better-than-expected growth numbers and optimism over prospective rate cuts.