🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 653 – Gold Crashes, Markets Burn, and Optasia's JSE Listing

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 21 October 2025
📈 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft – The global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand.

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💥 Local Markets Crushed

A brutal day on the JSE as the market closed down 2.5%, with resources tumbling 7.8% despite a steady rand (R17.43).

• Gold miners collapsed: Implats & Sibanye -10%, Gold Fields & Harmony -9%, AngloGold* -8%.

• PGMs also fell hard: Northam & Impala down over 7%.

• Retail pain: TFG* dropped a shocking 16.6% after a poor trading update, dragging down Pepkor, Mr Price*, and even WeBuyCars.

• U.S. markets were red but only mildly so — calm compared to SA's bloodbath.

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🪙 Gold: After 9 Green Weeks, the Pullback Arrives

Gold finally broke its 10-week winning streak, plunging from $4,378 to $4,122 — a $250 drop in two days 😬

• Simon notes this was inevitable after nine straight weeks of gains.

• Likely short-term support around $3,950–$4,000, with potential consolidation below $4,000.

• Despite the scare, the Satrix Resi is still up over 100% for 2025.
  💡 Lesson: even in a bull run, sharp corrections are part of the journey.

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🧠 Optasia: AI Fintech Listing on the JSE

A major new listing — Optasia (code: OPA) — is set to debut 3 November.
Valued at around R20–25 billion, it's one of the largest fintech listings in years.

Key Facts:

• Business: Micro-loans & airtime credit to the unbanked and underbanked.

• Reach: 38 markets (Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe).

• Scale:

  • 120 million customers/month

  • 32 million loans/day

  • $13m total daily loan value

• Average loan: $5 (microfinance) and $0.25 (airtime credit)

• Defaults: impressively low at 1.14% 💪

• Backers: Standard Bank, RMB, EcoBank, MTN, Vodacom, Airtel, Zain, and more.

• Listing price range: R15.50–R19.00 per share.

• Lockup: 180 days for sellers, 365 for directors.

• Existing shareholder exit: Ethos Capital (EPE) partially selling down.

Simon's Take 🎯

• Solid business with real revenue and strong growth (≈90% YoY in 2025H1).

• But… valuation not cheap (PE ≈ mid-20s).

• Concerns over allocation uncertainty and currency/regulatory risks in frontier markets.

• 💬 Verdict: "I'm not applying — great business, fair valuation, but not compelling enough."

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🚗 CMH* (Combined Motor Holdings): Excellent Results & Share Buyback

Vehicle sales hit their highest levels since 2015, and CMH delivered stellar numbers 🚙💨

• Headline earnings: +25%

• No dividend this time, but a 15% share buyback instead.

• Strong exposure to Indian & Chinese brands (nearly 50% of sales) plus Suzuki, now SA's #2 brand.

• Legacy luxury brands are struggling.

• Historic returns:

  • Share price last decade: 12%

  • Dividend yield last decade: ~10%

  • Combined ≈ 22% annual shareholder return over the past decade! 📊

The Twist

Founder Jeb McIntosh (79) may be looking to gradually exit — Simon suspects the buyback could facilitate this.
Still, Simon's holding: "I'm not selling — unless they offer me a crazy price."

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🏦 Upcoming Event: Standard Bank Client Migration

📢 Important for OST, WebTrader, and AutoShare Invest clients:
Standard Bank is migrating investment clients to Shift.
Join Simon Brown and Adish from Standard Bank on Tuesday, 28 October, 5:30 PM (Rosebank or Webcast).
🔗 Register at justonelap.com/events

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💬 Final Thoughts

Markets can be messy, but knowledge is power.
Simon wraps up with his usual reminder:

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else too." ❤️

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🔑 Episode Summary

• 🪙 Gold's epic run ends with a sharp pullback.

• 📉 JSE hammered by resources & retailers.

• 🤖 Optasia brings fintech AI excitement to the JSE.

• 🚗 CMH delivers strong results and a massive buyback.

• 🏦 Big changes coming for Standard Bank investing clients.

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Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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