🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 651 — "Value on the JSE? We Find the Cheapest Shares" (8 October 2025)

📅 Recorded Tuesday afternoon | Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

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💡 Episode Overview

This week Simon Brown digs into value on the JSE — where the cheapest shares might be hiding 👀.
He also unpacks:

• The Purple Group* pullback 🟣
• ETF returns so far in 2025 📈 (spoiler: it's been a wild year!)
• Upcoming Standard Bank Power Hour: Investing Like Warren Buffett 🧠

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🟣 Purple Group: Pullback or Panic?

• After a huge rally to R2.74, Purple Group has pulled back — but no need to panic.
• Likely to find support around R2.10, with upside targets around R3.50 💪.
• Expecting strong trading updates by late October or early November.
• With markets, gold, crypto, and offshore assets all flying, Purple should benefit as trading volumes rise.

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📊 2025 ETF Returns — A Booming Year

Simon's recent ETF analysis shows a banner year for SA ETFs (excluding dividends):
🏆 Top Performers:

• Satrix RESI* +118% 🪨
• Satrix Shariah +69% 🌙 (thanks to heavy gold exposure)
• 10X Top 20, Rafi 40*, Gold ETFs, SWIX, and EasyETFs Global Equity (Active) all strong 📈

📉 Laggards:

• Signia Health Innovation −9.2% 🧬
• India ETF −8.7% 🇮🇳
• Global Bonds & Healthcare ETFs slightly negative

🪙 Overall takeaway: 2025 is a golden year — literally and figuratively.

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💸 Value Hunt: The Cheapest Shares on the JSE

Simon's criteria for spotting value gems 💎:

• PE ratio: 0–10 (profitable companies only)
• Dividend yield: >0.01% (sign of free cash flow)
• Price-to-book: <1 (trading below net asset value)

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🔍 Highlights from the Screen

Property & Small Caps:
🏢 Ascension, Safari, Emira, Octodec — deep discounts to NAV, juicy yields (~8%).
🚍 Putprop — Western Cape bus operator, tiny but intriguing (PE 5.7, yield 3.5%).
🏠 Calgro M3* — low-cost housing builder, due for results soon; Baldwin also looking attractive.

Media & Industrials:
📺 E-Media — PE 4.8, dividend ~12%, cheap but illiquid.
🪵 Sappi & Mondi — paper industry under pressure.
⚙️ Invicta — PE <5, yield 3%, cutting prefs and improving cash flow.
🪓 Master Drilling — exposure to gold & copper, global operations, decent IP.
📦 Mpact — tied up in Caxton's bid & Competition Commission delays.

Consumer & Financials:
🛋️ Lewis Group — "a bank disguised as a furniture store," 10%+ yield, strong results.
🏦 Investec, ABSA, Nedbank — cheap banks with high yields and solid balance sheets.
🧓 Old Mutual — ~9% yield, launching a bank soon; well positioned in bull markets.
🚗 Motus & CMH* — benefiting from decade-high vehicle sales.
📦 Stor-age*, Spear, Growthpoint — steady property plays; prefer those with discounts to NAV.

Other Notables:
🐟 Sea Harvest & Oceana — solid businesses, but "fish stocks make for tough investments."
🪙 Sabvest — style value play, small discount to NAV.
💼 HCI — resolved union cash flow issues, trades below asset value.
🎙️ African Media Entertainment — great yield (10%), but beware of liquidity traps.

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⚠️ Simon's Key Takeaways

✅ There is value on the JSE, but many bargains are illiquid — trade carefully.
✅ Liquidity traps can hurt even when valuations look great.
✅ Dividend yields + solid cash flow are strong signals of resilience.
✅ Always DYOR — "Not financial advice."

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🧭 Final Thoughts

2025 continues to be a strong year for gold, ETFs, and SA banks, with pockets of deep value emerging across small caps and property.

💬 "Markets that are going higher make us feel richer — but if we're positioned right, they actually make us richer." — Simon Brown

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👋 Closing Note:
Nine more episodes to go this year!
Simon signs off: "Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else as well." ❤️

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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