With five months to go before the June 3 local elections, a New Year opinion poll suggests the People Power Party (PPP) is losing momentum in key battleground races. In a simulated matchup survey commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo and conducted by CaseStat Research, Oh Se-hoon, Seoul mayor and PPP member, was locked in a tight race within the margin of error against Jung Won-oh, a first-term figure from the Democratic Party (DP). In hypothetical races for Gyeonggi governor and Busan mayor, DP candidates Kim Dong-yeon and Chun Jae-soo led PPP contenders by margins exceeding the error range.

Analysts largely attribute the party's weakness to its failure, more than a year after the imposition of martial law, to clearly distance itself from former president Yoon Suk Yeol, while continuing to cater to its hard-line base. That reading helps explain why Oh warned on Wednesday that the party was "standing at the edge of a cliff," urging its leadership to apologize and reflect. The warning suggests the party's own leaders sense that public sentiment is moving in an unfavorable direction.

The results are especially damaging for the PPP because Chun topped the Busan matchup despite being under investigation for allegedly receiving illicit funds from the Unification Church. For the main opposition party, this underscores a failure to demonstrate relevance to voters. Among centrist voters, Oh trailed Jung 32 percent to 38 percent, while Busan Mayor Park Hyung-joon lagged far behind Chun at 24 percent to 49 percent. The numbers point to a party struggling to broaden its appeal beyond its core supporters.

PPP leadership should take seriously a survey that shows a complete failure to expand its base. Much of the responsibility falls on party chairman Jang Dong-hyeok, who has spoken of change but failed to break with the party's old patterns. Even so, Jang has projected confidence, saying that electoral victory would naturally follow if the party sincerely focused on people's livelihoods. That optimism rings hollow given that the poll already reflected major setbacks for the ruling party, including controversies involving DP floor leader Kim Byung-kee and allegations tied to lawmaker Kang Sun-woo. Despite favorable conditions, the opposition failed to gain ground.

Instead, internal discord deepened as the party became mired in disputes over its online message board, fueling factional conflict. By refusing to fully acknowledge Yoon's missteps and continuing to look only to hard-line supporters, the leadership alienated centrist voters. That frustration was evident in remarks from sitting mayors. Oh said he hoped there would be no more statements defending martial law, while Park warned that elections cannot be won by relying solely on a hard core base.

One silver lining for the PPP is that nearly 30 percent of respondents chose "no candidate," "don't know" or declined to answer. The sizable bloc of undecided voters suggests widespread disappointment with both camps. If the main opposition can present constructive alternatives and serve as a meaningful counterweight to the ruling party, it may yet recover relevance and create an opening for a turnaround. That is why Jang's pledge, in the Year of the Horse, to move forward with "bone-crushing resolve" will be closely watched.

This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.