Philip Diehl reacts to Friday’s CPI report and what it means for the Fed. He anticipates at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with another 1-2 next year as the “base case.” However, until we get more clarification around private credit risks, “we don’t know what that course will be” beyond October. He warns though that those cuts won’t drive the market higher. Philip expects the dollar to continue to weaken and talks about momentum in the gold trade; he thinks people are “underestimating the vulnerability of the market.”

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