It’s been around two months since my last random posting and lots of things have changed. Unfortunately, with my head buried in work, I’ve accumulated a lot of random thoughts and observations which have been bouncing around my head … but today is as good as any other to get them “out of there” and onto the blog.

Sydney in Lockdown

On Saturday afternoon came the big news that Sydney and surrounding areas are going into lockdown until 11.59pm on Friday July 9. This was not something that anyone really wanted to see, yet, was something I thought would be inevitable given the situation involving the highly contagious delta variant of COVID-19. After all, we have been enjoying increasing levels of freedom approaching a return to normal since the late-December 2020 Northern Beaches outbreak was contained.

This outbreak commenced with a limousine driver transporting air crew from a FedEx flight. It seems that in this process, a lot of words have been minced over whether the driver did anything wrong – from potentially not wearing the necessary PPE, not undergoing saliva testing, not being vaccinated and in turn potentially breaching health orders. Accordingly, this is the subject of a police investigation, but the nature of the delta variant has become quite apparent with fleeting contact being observed “in the wild” after examination of CCTV footage in the Eastern Suburbs cluster.

By now, it was Friday 18th and it already became apparent that the situation could become quite dire. I recall mentioning that I hope we didn’t turn into Melbourne – a neighbouring capital city that had underwent a series of lockdowns. The order went out for some restrictions to be re-implemented including mandatory face masks on public transport.

As the picture above shows, it seems that this was all so sudden and unexpected – almost all of us forgot we were living in the midst of an active pandemic and the “hammer and dance” strategy would require interventions when things went out of control. This would be especially important in a country where full vaccination rates were still in the 3-4% range.

For the next week, it seemed that the government was in a “wait and see” mode, encouraging people to get tested while watching the cluster grow and escape its original confines. Apparently, sewage testing has detected traces as far out as Bourke which is over 700km away. It seemed for political reasons, the NSW government were more interested in avoiding a lockdown as much as possible while also focusing on the role of the individual limousine driver rather than the risk that the current hotel quarantine system poses to all. Lockdowns are painful and economically damaging, but seem to work if they are used in a timely manner, are enforced and for long-enough periods. Likewise, border closures also seem to be yet another “curse word” that they avoid even mentioning as NSW likes to think they are the “gold standard” for keeping their borders and economy open. While hotel quarantine is often touted as a success given the number of returned travellers processed, I think it’s clear that Victoria’s experience and requests to the government regarding quarantine facilities indicates a level of risk to the city’s population that could be averted if the hotel quarantine system were to be relocated away for some spatial isolation.

By Thursday 24th July, I watched the daily local transmission numbers and already had a sense that lockdown was probably a good idea. Numbers were consistently growing, with a few new mystery cases but covering a wider geographic spread. Despite this, the government was busy spruiking the fact its contact tracing team were on top of it. Other experts had already flagged that a lockdown was justified.

It was only on Friday that something akin to a lockdown was to be announced – four LGAs in the Eastern Suburbs and Sydney city area would be under stay-at-home orders. The careful avoidance and side-stepping of the word ‘lockdown’ was apparent in the government’s response, but it seemed entirely a reactionary approach as we had already known that the virus had escaped those LGAs and had been detected in Castle Hill and West Hoxton, with locations of concern including populated cities such as Parramatta. A lockdown of just those LGAs would seem to be “locking the gate after the horse has bolted.”

By Saturday afternoon, the broader lockdown covering Greater Sydney, Blue Mountains, Central Coast, Wollongong and Shellharbour was finally announced. Not unexpectedly, case numbers continue to rise despite it being a weekend, indicating we are still in the ascending phase of the outbreak. But in spite of this, it seems that there were exceptions for weddings, funerals for the weekend and some confusion regarding community sport. Despite the seriousness of the Delta variant, it seems that it is not being treated with as much care as it could be. It seems likely that people will “just be people” and do as they please, without much individual consequences due to limited enforcement. It’s a shame that as a society, it seems we can’t work together for a community benefit.

Regardless, the messaging that vaccinated people should continue to wear masks and socially distance seemed to have rubbed some people the wrong way. It’s important to understand that the vaccines are not as effective against the Delta variant (and emerging Delta-plus variant) and break-through infections are possible. Where the population has mostly been vaccinated, the proportion of break-through vaccinations will increase. While having a vaccinated population would reduce the likelihood of the virus taking hold as there are fewer viable hosts, we don’t have enough vaccinated to benefit from this herd immunity effect. However, recent data from the US reconfirms that vaccines are very effective at protecting against death.

Just as you don’t wait for your plane to be cancelled to buy travel insurance, waiting until the outbreak grows to drive you to get a vaccine is just not going to work. Supplies are limited and long waiting time for appointments have already been seen prior to the outbreak. Now that we are in lockdown, I suppose that provides some increased motivation for the population to get vaccinated, but the supply of vaccines and appointments means that it will be too late to make a difference for this outbreak (hopefully), assuming we get it under control within a month or so.

It is a very disappointing development, especially since it coincides with the school holiday vacation period and after so many months of relative freedom. Working from home again is perhaps not the worst thing in order to keep myself and the community safe, although it does limit what I can do with regards to my university research. After all, I’ve always got plenty to do. I just hope that we get on top of this quickly so we can return back to a cautiously-open state.

Frankenphone Gets Another Repair

You may remember the frankenphone which keeps me online through its LTE radio – well, it recently developed an intermittent USB connection which caused it to drop out randomly. I had already prepared for this possibility by buying a “clone” port PCB for a few dollars, but never got around to installing it.

Since my last modification that led to an external battery connected by wires and no enclosed case, getting in to replace the port PCB was quite simple. It involved unscrewing a plastic assembly that housed speakers, microphone, a vibration motor and printed antenna.