Joo Jung-wan

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

The Seoul housing market is showing signs of overheating again despite repeated interventions from the Lee Jae Myung administration. Government data from the Korea Real Estate Board shows that, as of Monday, apartment prices in the capital rose 0.27 percent from the previous week, the sharpest weekly gain in 12 weeks. The board releases its statistics every Thursday, and the increases have been accelerating since early September.

Private surveys suggest even steeper rises. KB Real Estate reported that in the week ending Sept. 15, Seoul apartment prices jumped 0.34 percent. Districts along the so-called "Han River Belt" led the surge, with Gwangjin up 0.96 percent, Songpa 0.94 percent, and Seongdong 0.73 percent. In Seongnam's Bundang District, just south of Seoul, prices rose 1.16 percent in one week, the fastest pace in four years and seven months.



As the administration marks its fourth month in office on Saturday, it faces a critical choice on housing policy. A third package of measures is expected soon, but the question is whether the government will pursue tougher restrictions or shift toward expanding supply. Many warn that repeating the regulatory playbook of the previous Moon Jae-in administration - sometimes derided as "Season Two" - would be a mistake. During Moon's five years in office, the government rolled out more than 20 strong measures, from lending curbs to punitive taxes, yet home prices soared. The backlash from frustrated Koreans - both homeowners burdened by rising costs and prospective buyers shut out of the market - contributed to the Democratic Party's loss of power.

President Lee himself appeared to recognize this during the campaign. On May 29, four days before the presidential election, he told a rally in Seoul's Seocho District, "When Democratic governments were in power, housing prices went up. Why did that happen? I decided to change my thinking. If people want to buy and sell at higher prices, even if there are disparities with other areas, do we really need to suppress that by force?" At the time, his remarks were seen as a signal that he would pursue a more pragmatic approach, distancing himself from Moon-era regulations.

But since taking office, the government's tone has shifted. Within a month, the administration introduced the June 27 measures, imposing sweeping lending restrictions. On Sept. 7, it unveiled another round of curbs, again tightening credit. Although that package was formally titled "Plans to Expand Housing Supply," critics said the content fell short, calling it an empty promise. Many now expect the government to expand land transaction permits, which ban buyers from purchasing homes with tenant deposits. The prospect of such restrictions has fueled a sense of urgency among buyers, with some describing the atmosphere as "last chance marketing."

The possibility of higher property taxes is also back on the agenda. On Monday, Land and Transport Minister Kim Yun-duk suggested in a meeting with reporters that he personally favors raising property ownership taxes, while clarifying that he was speaking in a personal capacity. In August, Presidential Policy Chief Kim Yong-beom argued that "no measures should be off the table if housing stability and welfare require them," warning that assuming taxes would never rise would be misguided.

Adjusting real estate taxes depending on market conditions is not unusual, but experts caution against repeating the mistakes of the past. Previous governments operated on the principle of gradually raising ownership taxes while easing transaction levies to keep the market fluid. Moon's administration broke from this balance, imposing heavy burdens on buyers, sellers, and owners alike. The result was widespread discontent and an overheated market.



If the current government ignores these lessons, analysts warn, the political and economic costs could be severe. Critics already speak...