Signal and Noise: Evaluating Language Model Benchmarks
Description
This paper introduces a framework for **evaluating language model benchmarks** by quantifying **signal** and **noise**. The signal measures a benchmark's capacity to differentiate between superior and inferior models, while noise reflects its susceptibility to random fluctuations during training. The authors demonstrate that a **higher signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)** correlates with more reliable small-scale experiments for predicting large model performance and that less noise leads to reduced scaling law prediction error. They propose three **interventions** to enhance SNR: **filtering noisy subtasks**, **averaging model checkpoint scores** to reduce variability, and employing **bits-per-byte (BPB)** as a more consistent evaluation metric. The research emphasizes that considering SNR is crucial for designing and selecting benchmarks that accurately guide language model development, rather than relying solely on benchmark size.
United States
