In this episode, we broadcast from Rockefeller Center and dig into three areas retail investors are asking about: rare earths valuation, titanium & advanced manufacturing (IperionX: IPX), and lithium market volatility—with updates from The Metals Company (TMC) and Lithium Royalty Corp (LIRC).

🔍 What we cover:

- Rare earths—how to value early-stage names: Matt explains why NdPr-equivalent (neodymium–praseodymium) is a better lens than Total REO, and how we compare companies using market cap per contained NdPr-equivalent rather than headline grades alone.

- IperionX site visit takeaways: Scrap-to-titanium, additive manufacturing and fasteners opportunity; why execution risk is falling; and how a “Bessemer moment” for titanium could reset costs versus aluminum/stainless.

- TMC regulatory progress: NOAA confirms application compliance and priority rights; we discuss timelines, executive-order context, and what “big needle-mover” funding could look like in the U.S. framework.

- Battery chemistry mix: Where nickel chemistries sit versus LFP as autonomy and energy density needs rise; manganese’s role (LMR) and the potential to produce manganese sulfate from nodules.

- Lithium market now: CATL lepidolite restart chatter, demand growth still tracking ~high-20s % y/y, Chinese capex decelerating, and why restarts and cost curves matter for price formation through 2026–27.

- Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE): Asset-by-asset reality check—costs and capex can be higher than conventional routes; not automatically first-quartile on the cost curve.

- Royalty model for retail investors: LIRC’s portfolio (e.g., Sigma Lithium) and why royalties can provide exposure to Argentine brines and production growth while reducing operating cost risk.



Learn more about IperionX (IPX):

- Website: https://iperionx.com/

- X (Twitter): https://x.com/iperionx



Learn more about The Metals Company (TMC):

- Website: https://metals.co/

- X (Twitter): https://x.com/themetalsco

Learn more about Lithium Royalty Corp (LIRC):

- Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/

- X (Twitter): https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty

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📖 Chapters

(00:00 ) Introduction

(03:15 ) Rare Earths: NdPr Valuation

(08:20 ) IperionX: Scrap-to-Titanium

(18:03 ) Heavy Rare Earth by-products

(23:41 ) TMC: NOAA Compliance & Timeline

(26:19 ) TMC: Priority Rights & Scale

(27:47 ) Manganese & LMR Batteries

(30:42 ) Industry Signals: Lockheed & Partners

(33:01 ) Nickel vs LFP; Autonomy

(35:55 ) U.S. Funding Paths & Structure

(43:05 ) Lithium Royalty Corp Overview

(45:09 ) Exposure to Argentine Brines

(46:53 ) Volatility: CATL, Demand, China CapEx

(50:56 ) DLE: Costs, CapEx, Fit

(56:18 ) Restarts & Cost Curve

(58:56 ) Price Recovery Outlook

🌍 Links

- Read Matt’s research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/

- Sign up for the Lithium Ion Bull newsletter: https://rkequity.com/

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel

Podcast:

  Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172

  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq

X (Twitter):

  Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull

  Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13

  Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Rodney and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein