The Fix Is In. Fixed over floating now that rate cuts are all but certain
Update: 2025-09-09
Description
Senior portfolio manager Tim Leary discusses how weaker job growth and strong bond market activity, coupled with tight spreads, support expectations for a September rate cut and continued favorable conditions for fixed-income markets.
- Weaker job data and key events like Jackson Hole and August payrolls pave the way for a September rate cut.
- Strong technicals in the US bond markets persist, with significant issuance and demand driving tighter spreads, lower yields, and favorable pricing.
- The S&P showed minor volatility, while the Russell 2000 demonstrated stronger risk sentiment, reflecting optimism in HY markets due to overlapping names.
- This leads us to prefer fixed coupons over variable in fixed income credit markets.
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