The War That Won’t End
21Digest
This episode of The Daily delves into the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, nearly a year after it began. The episode explores the reasons behind the stalemate, highlighting the differing objectives of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Netanyahu seeks a temporary ceasefire to allow for the release of hostages and ultimately defeat Hamas, while Sinwar aims for a permanent ceasefire to ensure Hamas's survival. The episode also examines the role of the United States in mediating the conflict and the potential game-changers that could shift the dynamic, including a change in US leadership, the death of Sinwar, or the escalation of the conflict into a regional war. The episode also discusses the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard as honorary co-chairs of Donald Trump's presidential transition team. These appointments are seen as an attempt by Trump to demonstrate his support extends beyond party lines, as both Kennedy and Gabbard have previously been associated with progressive politics.
Outlines
The Gaza Conflict: A Year Later, Why No End in Sight?
This episode explores the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, nearly a year after it began. The episode delves into the reasons behind the stalemate, highlighting the differing objectives of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Netanyahu seeks a temporary ceasefire to allow for the release of hostages and ultimately defeat Hamas, while Sinwar aims for a permanent ceasefire to ensure Hamas's survival. The episode also examines the role of the United States in mediating the conflict and the potential game-changers that could shift the dynamic, including a change in US leadership, the death of Sinwar, or the escalation of the conflict into a regional war.
Trump's Transition Team: Kennedy Jr. and Gabbard Join
Donald Trump has announced plans to name Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard as honorary co-chairs of his presidential transition team. The appointments are seen as an attempt by Trump to demonstrate his support extends beyond party lines, as both Kennedy and Gabbard have previously been associated with progressive politics.
Keywords
Constructive Ambiguity
A negotiation tactic where language in an agreement is intentionally vague to allow both sides to interpret it favorably and sell it to their respective constituencies. This can help bridge gaps and facilitate agreement, but can also lead to future disputes if the ambiguity is not resolved.
Threshold for Victory
The minimum level of success that a party in a conflict considers acceptable to declare victory. In the Gaza conflict, Israel's threshold is high, seeking Hamas's total destruction, while Hamas's threshold is low, aiming for its own survival.
Black Swan Event
An unpredictable and highly impactful event that has a significant and often unforeseen effect on a situation. In the context of the Gaza conflict, a Black Swan event could be a major shift in the political landscape, a sudden escalation of violence, or a breakthrough in negotiations.
Regional War
A conflict involving multiple countries or factions in a specific geographic region. In the Middle East, a regional war could involve Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and other actors, potentially escalating the current conflict in Gaza and leading to wider instability.
Game Changer
An event or action that significantly alters the course of a situation. In the Gaza conflict, potential game-changers include a change in US leadership, the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, or the escalation of the conflict into a regional war.
Q&A
What are the main differences in the objectives of Netanyahu and Sinwar regarding the ceasefire?
Netanyahu seeks a temporary ceasefire to allow for the release of hostages and ultimately defeat Hamas, while Sinwar aims for a permanent ceasefire to ensure Hamas's survival.
How has the US involvement in the talks impacted the process?
The US has brought energy and attempted to bridge gaps between the sides by using "constructive ambiguity" in the language of draft agreements, allowing both sides to interpret the terms favorably.
Why hasn't Hamas surrendered despite the significant destruction in Gaza?
Hamas has a very low threshold for victory, simply seeking its own survival. It believes that as long as it has one fighter standing, it hasn't lost the war.
What are some potential game-changers that could shift the dynamic of the conflict?
Potential game-changers include a change in US leadership, the death of Sinwar, or the escalation of the conflict into a regional war.
Show Notes
It’s been nearly a year since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks in Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza.
Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief for The New York Times, explains why the war is still going, and what it would take to end it.
Guest: Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief for The New York Times.
Background reading:
- Here’s a look at the twists and turns over months of talks and what the main sticking points have been recently.
- Cease-fire talks will continue in Cairo, officials said.
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.
Table of contents
United States
Be clear and call it genocide