Listeners, it’s Wednesday, October 1st, 2025, and you’re tuned in to India Tariff News and Tracker, your go-to update for the critical headlines and rates shaping US-India trade in the Trump era.

President Trump issued a Section 232 Proclamation on September 29th that slashed US tariffs on Indian wood products and furniture, including softwood lumber and kitchen cabinets, from a steep 50 percent to a much more manageable 10 to 25 percent. According to policy think tank GTRI, this move provides major relief, making Indian furniture and cabinetry more competitive in the American market, and is expected to boost Indian exports significantly during fiscal year 2026. To put numbers on it, India exported over $654 million in these product categories last year, including $568 million in kitchen cabinets and $83 million in upholstered furniture—each now facing much lower duties than before. A key detail to note is that Section 232 tariffs override country-specific rates, so these goods will see immediate benefit without waiting on further trade deal negotiations.

Indian officials, after a series of “constructive” talks with US trade negotiators in Washington and on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, have expressed optimism that a broader bilateral deal is coming soon. Both sides are working intensively to finalize the first part of this agreement before autumn ends, with Indian government sources saying there’s hope a settlement will lower the extra 25 percent tariff the US imposed on Indian exports as a penalty for buying Russian oil. The US side is also seeking concessions on issues like H1B visas and pharmaceutical tariffs, suggesting a comprehensive package may be on the horizon that could reshape trade flows heading into 2026.

Listeners should also pay attention to the new Trump administration tariff structure. Since April, the US baseline reciprocal tariff rate is 10 percent, but President Trump has announced intentions to push that up to 15–20 percent, a threat still hanging as guidance is awaited. For India, country-specific rates and penalties related to Russian-origin goods have fluctuated between 25 and 50 percent, but government sources suggest imminent progress on reducing these burdens. The administration has stacked new regulatory warnings about further secondary tariffs if Russian or Venezuelan oil purchases persist.

On the macro level, the Reserve Bank of India today held its policy rate unchanged, citing tariff pressures and the persistent overhang of US duties as key reasons for a cautious monetary stance. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra made clear that the impact of recent US trade moves remains uncertain, especially with new tariffs on Indian pharmaceutical products set to take effect.

Finally, India’s central bank and top trade officials are betting that the country’s robust economy—projected to grow over 6 percent in 2025 and 2026, according to IMF data—will weather these storms and seize new opportunities as tariffs shift, deals are signed, and exporters adapt.

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