The US July CPI result was better than expected, with headline inflation moderating to 8.5% yoy (from 9.1% in June), mainly thanks to a 4.6% mom fall in energy costs. This was on the back of a 10.4% mom fall in Brent oil prices and a 8.5% mom fall in Nymex natural gas prices. It is not obvious this is being repeated in August: so far, on average oil prices have fallen a further 7.5% mom, but gas prices have rebounded 12.6% mom, and overall the CRB index, which fell 9.5% in July, is almost unchanged.

Still, July's result is strong enough to allow us to scale back the likely inflationary trajectory in the US, with it now expected to peak at 9.1% in September, before drifting down to below 8% by end-2Q23. 

But two caveats. First, I'm fashioning these trajectories from the 6m deviation in 5yr seasonalized trends - but volatilities in CPI indexes during the last six months have been consistently dramatic (both above and below trend), and in some cases (UK) positively freakish. So even a 6m trend assumption isn't looking particularly stable month-on-month.  

Second, whilst inflationary pressures may be moderating in the US, they are only now beginning to show up in force in NE Asia. Overall, this means that my measure of global aggregate inflation continued to rise in July. . . .