Lecture 1: Model predictions of the response of ocean physical and biological processes to climate change
I will summarize the main physical changes predicted by global warming models for the rest of this century and how we expect those changes to impact both lower trophic and upper trophic level processes in the ocean. I will discuss empirical as well as ecosystem model approaches for predicting the biological response and examine how the model simulations compare with estimates of chlorophyll and primary production based on ocean color observations. A major emphasis of the discussion will be on interannual as well as intra and inter‐model variability.

Lecture 2: Detection of trends in ocean color data
I will briefly review recent studies attempting to use ocean color products to detect climate trends then examine how variability such as that identified by the model simulations affects our ability to detect long‐term trends in the observations.

Bibliography

Sarmiento, J. et al. (2004), Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 18(GB3003), doi:1029/2003GB002134.

Steinacher, M., F. Joos, T. Frölicher, L. Bopp, P. Cadule, S. Doney, M. Gehlen, B. Schneider, and J. Segschneider (2010), Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi‐model analysis, Biogeosciences, 7, 979–1005.

!!!!!!!!Cours 2!!!!!!!

Henson, S., J. Sarmiento, J. Dunne, L. Bopp, I. Lima, S. Doney, J. John, and C. Beaulieu (2010), Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity, Biogeosciences, 7, 621–640.