What’s really happening in the Red Sea, and how should shippers plan for what comes next?

In this episode of The Freight Debate, Phil Hennessy and Emily Stausbøll unpack the growing gap between carrier messaging and market reality when it comes to a potential return to the Suez Canal. While headlines hint at progress, the data tells a more cautious story, with container ship transits still trending down and no fixed timelines in place.

They break down how carriers are quietly testing routes, what a gradual return through Suez actually means for capacity, and why unlocking supply is far slower than many expect. The discussion also dives into carrier tactics as demand weakens, capacity keeps rising, and market share increasingly takes priority over rate discipline.

Looking ahead to 2026, Phil and Emily explore what this means for tender strategies, Red Sea surcharges, and contract flexibility, plus a seasonal case study on Christmas lights that reveals how tariffs can rapidly reshape global trade flows.

Whether you are navigating tender season, tracking carrier behavior, or planning for shifting trade patterns next year, this episode provides clear, data-backed insight into the forces shaping container shipping right now.

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