Will the Trump Assassination Attempt Change the 2024 Race?
5Digest
The podcast delves into the historical context of failed assassination attempts against political figures, examining their impact on elections and political trends. The hosts, Max Fisher and Trevelle Anderson, begin by discussing the reaction to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and introduce the episode's central question: will this event alter the course of the 2024 election or American politics more broadly? To answer this, they analyze historical examples, including the assassination attempts on George Wallace, Gerald Ford, Jair Bolsonaro, and Robert Fico. They interview historians and political experts to understand the immediate and long-term consequences of these events. The podcast highlights that while these attempts often generate short-term sympathy for the victim, they rarely significantly alter the course of elections or political trends. Instead, they often reinforce existing political narratives and divisions, potentially exacerbating political polarization and authoritarian tendencies. The hosts conclude by discussing the potential consequences of the attempted assassination of Trump, suggesting that while it is unlikely to significantly alter the course of the 2024 election, it could further erode trust in democratic institutions and contribute to a rise in political violence.
Outlines
The Impact of Assassination Attempts on Elections
The podcast explores the historical context of failed assassination attempts against political figures, examining their impact on elections and political trends. The hosts discuss the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and introduce the episode's central question: will this event alter the course of the 2024 election or American politics more broadly?
Lessons from History: Examining Past Assassination Attempts
The hosts analyze historical examples of failed assassination attempts against political candidates, including the attempts on George Wallace, Gerald Ford, Jair Bolsonaro, and Robert Fico. They interview historians and political experts to understand the immediate and long-term consequences of these events.
The Future of American Politics: Potential Consequences
The hosts summarize the lessons learned from the historical examples and discuss the potential consequences of the attempted assassination of Trump. They suggest that while it is unlikely to significantly alter the course of the 2024 election, it could further erode trust in democratic institutions and contribute to a rise in political violence.
Keywords
George Wallace
Former governor of Alabama and a prominent segregationist figure. He ran for president in the 1960s and 1970s, advocating for racial segregation. He was shot and paralyzed during a campaign rally in 1972.
Gerald Ford
The 38th president of the United States. He became president after Richard Nixon resigned in 1974. He was the target of two assassination attempts in 1975, both of which failed.
Jair Bolsonaro
Former president of Brazil. He is known for his far-right views and his close ties to Donald Trump. He was stabbed during a campaign rally in 2018, an event that his supporters used to solidify his image as a victim and a hero.
Robert Fico
Prime Minister of Slovakia. He is known for his populist and nationalist views. He was shot and injured during a campaign rally in May 2023. The incident has been seen as a sign of the increasing polarization and violence in Slovakian politics.
Political Polarization
The increasing division and hostility between different political groups. This trend is evident in many countries, including the United States, and is often fueled by social media and the spread of misinformation.
Authoritarianism
A form of government in which one person or a small group of people holds absolute power. Authoritarian regimes often suppress dissent, restrict freedom of speech, and control the media.
Q&A
What lessons can be learned from past failed assassination attempts against political candidates?
History suggests that failed assassination attempts often reinforce existing political narratives and divisions, rather than significantly altering the course of elections or political trends. While they may generate short-term sympathy for the victim, the long-term impact is often minimal.
What are the potential consequences of the attempted assassination of Trump for American politics?
While the event is unlikely to significantly alter the course of the 2024 election, it could potentially exacerbate existing political divisions and authoritarian tendencies. The incident could also lead to a further erosion of trust in democratic institutions and a rise in political violence.
Show Notes
Since the moment someone shot Donald Trump last weekend, we’ve been hearing the same thing: this election’s over, and it’s going to Trump. But the course of this race—and American politics more broadly—will probably change less than you think. Tre’vell and Max take a look at past assassination attempts in the U.S. and abroad to explain why surviving violent attacks does not guarantee an election victory. Has any politician successfully leveraged these assaults for political gain? Which US president survived two assassination attempts in one month? How would this have played out if Trump were in office? Listen to this week’s How We Got Here to find out.
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