85. Dan Gardner (part one) - superforecasting and fat tail risks
Description
Dan Gardner is the international best-selling author of Superforecasting, How Big Things Get Done, Risk and Future Babble. Tune in to hear his thoughts on: What are the key insights from Superforecasting for board members? (1:15 ) Can you expand on the idea of probabilistic thinking? (10:00 ) Practically, how can board members apply concepts like epistemic humility and base rates to their decision making? (12:56 ) Can board members be victims of their own success? (14:43 ) Do people account sufficiently for luck in previous successes? (17:04 ) How can boards make sure members get sufficient feedback on their decisions? (20:53 ) How can boards assess a prospective member’s judgement? (23:55 ) Why do smart people consistently underestimate the costs of projects, especially fat tail risks? (25:01 ) How can board members use base rates for IT and building projects to challenge and support? (31:52 ) Have you established any base rates for budgeting? (37:51 )
Host: Oliver Cummings
Producer: Will Felton
Music: Kate Mac
Audio: Nick Kold
Email: podcast@nurole.com
Web: https://www.nurole.com/nurole-podcast-enter-the-boardroom
United States
