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🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658

📅 26 November 2025
🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown
💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

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🔥 This Week's Big Themes

• 📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate!

• 💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction

• 🥇 Harmony goes big on copper

• 🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery

• 📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks

• 🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product

• 🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

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🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play

• 🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia.

• 🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments.

• 💰 Valuation extremely cheap:

  • PE < 5

  • Dividend yield > 3%

  • Price-to-book: 0.7

• 🚧 SA's weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.

• ⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

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🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive

• 💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m.

• 💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves.

• 🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model.

• 🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

  • 🎮 Tencent Games

  • 🎵 Tencent Music

  • 📺 Online ads

  • 📱 WeChat ecosystem

  • 🎥 Epic Games stake

  • 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms

• 🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

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💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls?

• 📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia.

• 🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility.

• 🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon.

• ⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still "B-grade".

• 📉 Technically:

  • Support at ~$180

  • Next support ~$166

  • Further support ~$150s

• 🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" — but bubbles go UP before they pop.

• 📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:

  • Only Meta sits below (-10%).

  • Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).

  • Amazon also soft (+5%).

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🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant?

• 🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia.

• 🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25).

• ⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings.

• 🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha's view:

  • ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures

  • ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals

• ⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.

• 🔌 Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech.

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🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!)

• 🧺 Basket:

  • 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)

  • 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)

• 💸 Auto-call feature:

  • Year 1: If both indices are positive → 16% payout

  • If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year

  • Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%

• 🛡️ Capital protection:

  • 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity

• 💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)

• 🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025

• 📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

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📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate

🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends)

• 🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!)

• 🥈 Gold Fields — 37%

• 🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends)

• ⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends

• ⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5%

• 🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner)

• 💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25%

• 🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total

• 🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+

• 🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

📉 Big Losers (per-year declines)

• 🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26%

• 📦 Nampak — -18%

• 🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5%

• 🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14%

• 💊 Aspen — -10%

• 🛢️ Sasol — -10%

• 🏘️ Balwin — -7%

• 🍔 Famous Brands — -7%

• 🧱 PPC — -5%

• 🛒 Pick n Pay — -5%

• 🏥 Netcare — -4.8%

• 🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

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📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance

• 📈 118% total return over 10 years

• 📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends)

• 📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019)

• 📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis

• 🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

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📣 Call to Action

💬 Tell us in the comments:

• Which 10-year winners do you own?

• Which stats shocked you most?

• What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

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