DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages

Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)

Dangerous market - running on emotions

Tesla Earnings are out...

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Warm Up
- Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed)
- Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)
- Dangerous market - running on emotions

Market Update
- DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July)
- Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed -
- Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names too

Need a new CTP

Market Emotions
- Now that we  are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market
- Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines)
- People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts)
- Biden dropping  out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ...

Crowdstrike Glitch
- Anything on your end a problem?
- Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday
- Airlines - still seem to be having issues
- Bigger issues when relying on single company?
- Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services
- Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings  (some firms  may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack)

Delta Offers Apologies+
- CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch"
- 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights)
- The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts
- WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers)

Tech - Wiz Walks
- $23 billion - they say NO THANKS
- Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers
- May valuation was $12 billion
- Company wants to go the IPO route

Election
- Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?)
- Trump Trade fade?
- Vance tough on anything  foreign? (USA First)
- Anyone else aside from Harris?

Bank Earnings
- Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good
- Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely)
- Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks)
- Fed continues to be dovish
- Trump expectations of reduced regulations?

More Earnings
- Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus
--- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue  and other AI comments)
- Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus
-- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr
---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%)
- Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%)

Warren
- Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.