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Warm-Up

- Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence)

- Strike Update - could be an issue

- Another Strike - different kind - Israel and Iran

- VP Debate tonight

Markets

- End of the Month - End of The Quarter

- Seasonality features the Bulls

- Good quarter - setting up for more gains?

- Question - Capital Gains??

- Inflation (PCE) Update

--- Fed Limericks ....And another  AI generated CoverArt - what do you think?

ANNOUNCING CTP for INTC

Market Selling Off

- Iran sending in missiles to Israel started a general concern

- VIX popped over 20 for a minute

- Markets down 1%++, but found reasons to try to come back mid day

Inflation

- Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve's target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

- The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%.

- Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as better measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on core.

Euro Cars - Not Good

--- Blaming China....

- Stellantis on Monday trimmed its 2024 annual guidance on the back of deteriorating "global industry dynamics" and bolstered competition from China

- The French-Italian conglomerate, known for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Maserati, warned of lower-than-expected sales "across most regions" in the second half of the year.

- Stock down 8% on the news

- UK-based Aston Martin Global Holdings PLC has signaled that it expects lower profits for FY24 due to supply chain disruptions and a decline in sales in China. According to its trading update, the company now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) to be slightly below FY23 levels.

- In addition, it no longer expects to achieve positive free cash flow in H2 2024. Following the update, AML shares crashed by around 24% as of writing.

- Stock down 43% YTD

- What about RACE, Ford and others?

China

- WOW - Best Rally n Monday since... 1998?

- Shenzen and Shanghai index up 8% on the back of:

---China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum.

- China's industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.

------ That followed a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in five months.

-------Industrial profits covers factories, mines and utilities in China.

-- While the data was better than expected, anything that shows weakness in the economy will be met with expections that there will be more easing....

-- Note: FXI (Hang Seng, up 2% - Could be time for short on parabolic move??)

Hang Seng

Interesting Tape

- Headline at 11:30 am Monday : Israel tells US that it is planning a imminent ground operation in Lebanon, according to Washington Post

- Oil is steady

- Markets turn positive

- VIX falls abit

- No fear of further escalation?

Asia

- Getting weird

- Japan's Nikkei falls over 4%, Australia stocks hit fresh all-time

- The moves in Japanese markets come as investors digest Shigeru Ishiba's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party elections last Friday. (Surprised markets)

- Ishiba’s selection forced investors to pare positions that had been built on speculation Takaichi would become Japan’s new prime minister and encourage the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low.

Nike

- NIKE prelim Q1 $0.70 vs $0.52 FactSet Consensus; revs $11.59 bln vs $11.64 bln

- Stock DOWN 6% after hours

- - Withdrawing FY2025 Guideance due to CEO transition - will provide quarterly

- Could be a good candidate for turnaround that gets combined with China story??

- NIKE beats by $0.18, reports revs in-line, North America revenue down 11%

Humana

- Humana selling off sharply, sinking to multi-year lows, after health insurer released new 2025 Medicare Advantage offerings this morning; At about 65% of total EBITDA, Medicare Advantage insurance is company's core business, so concerns that new offerings may cut into profits may be hitting shares 

Strike Update

- A port strike on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico will go ahead starting on Tuesday, the International Longshoremen's Association union said

- President Joe Biden said he did not intend to intervene to prevent a walkout if dock workers failed to secure a new contract by an Oct. 1 deadline.

- What will be the impact of this... said that a 1-week strike will take 1-month to recover from...

Speculation Time

- What if .... Capital Gains at 28% Flat

- Bear case - end of year debacle - sell those big gainers to get ahead of the gains

- Bull case = then buy back after wash rule expires 30 days?

Fed - Can't Stop the Jabber

- Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) open to larger rate cut in November if job growth weakens faster than expected, according to Reuters

Interference

- You wrote an interesting piece on substack

- More Google-Related Election Shenanigans

- https://dvorak.substack.com/p/more-google-related-election-shenanigans

AI Safety Bill

- California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday vetoed a hotly contested artificial intelligence safety bill, after the tech industry raised objections, saying it could drive AI companies from the state and hinder innovation.

- What do we know about this?

--- Is the reason for the VETO simply money ?

- Newsom said he had asked leading experts on Generative AI to help California "develop workable guardrails" that focus "on developing an empirical, science-based trajectory analysis." He also ordered state agencies to expand their assessment of the risks from potential catastrophic events tied to AI use.

More AI

- OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, expects about $5 billion in losses on $3.7 billion in revenue this year,

- The company generated $300 million in revenue last month, up 1,700% since the beginning of last year, and expects to bring in $11.6 billion i