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Warm-Up

- Where are all the smokers these days?

- DOGE - making promises

- High level indictment

- We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise

Markets

-#endthefed making the rounds

- Treasury Secretary?

- Target earnings surprise

- Black Friday - will that boost retail?

- New Phrase - Mullet Market

Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table?

ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana

Mullet Market

- No, the fish...

- Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back

Netflix Again

- Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan

- 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan

- Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee

- Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans

Smokers

- Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028.

- Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes.

- Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data.

At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization.

Topic of Discussion

- #endthefed

- Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed?

- Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy.

- Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed

-- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired

DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency

- Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade

- Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...)

- Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements.

--- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter)

Higher rates

- Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range

- DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases.

- Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said

- If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture.

Yeah Right....

- Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39, died after falling from the fifth floor of an apartment building on Saturday.

- The fall was said to have been ‘accidental’.

- Local reports suggest he was trying to escape from his apartment - after his ex-wife locked him in there at his request to stop him from buying drugs.

OH WOW

- India's Adani Group saw shares of its companies plunge Thursday after its billionaire chairman Gautam Adani was indicted in a New York federal court over his alleged involvement in an extensive bribery and fraud operation.

- The 62-year-old billionaire and the seven other defendants have been accused of paying over $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy contracts that could generate more than $2 billion in profits.

- That is something.....

Target

- Target missed third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and cut its full-year guidance.

- Target struggled to drive sales even after reducing prices on thousands of items.

- The results come a day after Walmart beat Wall Street expectations and hiked its outlook.

- The big-box retailer reversed course and cut its full-year profit guidance, just three months after hiking that forecast.

- It said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $8.30 to $8.90.

- That’s lower than the $9 to $9.70 per share range that it shared in August and below the $9.55 a share expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.

---- That means that things are slowing down at a very

Advanced Auto Parts

- What happened to this amazing business?

- Advance Auto Parts is closing more than 700 locations to shore up the company’s finances following another dismal earnings report.

-The car parts retailer, which has about 5,000 stores, said Thursday that the closures are part of its “strategic plan to improve business performance.”

- Stock was a darling as high as $240 in January 2022 - now trades near $40

RFK Jr

- Maybe he has some residual from the brain work form 2010 that gave him brain fog and had trouble with word retrieval and short-term memory

- ANYWAY - word on the street is that he could recommend removing fluoride from the water system.

- On the good side of this - Dental supply company Henry Schein (HSIC) is up on the idea as this could lead to a boom in dental visits.

Jersey Mikes - Feel good story...

- Blackstone buys company

- Valued at 8 Billion

- CEO bought the sub shop at 17 with the help of his football coach

Walmart

- Earnings last week - wow company firing on all cylinders

- This notion that the consumer is hurting looks like a way just to sandbag earnings (Lowes, Home Depot)

- Company is upbeat on consumer spending

- Takes us back to the inflation discussion into the future.

Black Friday

- Once again we are here - what do we buy?

- Black Friday has long been a cornerstone of the global shopping calendar.

- In 2023, Black Friday sales in the U.S. totaled $9.8 billion.

- This year, projections indicate sales will reach $10.8 billion, a 9.9% increase from 2023.

- Where to find the best deals????

NVDA Earnings

- After a quarter where Nvidia's sales nearly doubled, investors and analysts are wondering how long the chipmaker can keep this kind of growth going now that it has a $140 billion annual revenue run rate.

- Basic, company did well, there was a range of the revenue that was an issues and some could have seen it as soft.

Dell Earnings

- Company issues downside guidance

- Company also says that multiple tailwinds are heading into 2025 as AI demand is still there.

- Growth primarily from AI servers, then traditional severs and storage.

- Stock down 10%

Home sales

- Just before rates moved up in October...

- Sales of previ