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This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com

Warm-Up

- Bulls remain in charge

- Data not important - down the road all will be fine

- Seasonality - Race to the End

- Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.

- Musk pulls a fast one

Markets

- CPI and PPI - conflicting

- Bank earnings - so far so good

- Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead

- US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

Economics This Week

- Import and Export Prices

- Retail Sales

- Philly Fed

- Industrial Production

- Housing Starts

- Building Permits

Of Interest:

NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.

- So inflation is a bit more sticky than

Recession - No Says Goldman

- Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

Seasonality - The Race until the end

- Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...

- End of year from here favors the bulls

- Could have a few complications with the election right in  between but electoral promises will be  helpful for markets

Markets Worried?

- Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis

- NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East

- Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them

- The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security

- ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

Fed Powers

- Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

ELON - Pulling a fast one

- Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg

- Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)

- Isn't that fraud?

Example of promises hitting the wires

- Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters

- Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America

- Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)

Consumer Confidence

- Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident

- Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

JPM Earnings

- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.

- Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.

- Official:  JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates. The bank’s performance was driven by robust trading and investment banking revenues. This reflects a slight drop compared to the same quarter last year, when earnings were $4.33 per share. However, JPMorgan's revenues increased from the previous year's figure of $39.8 billion

Other Banks:

- Wells Fargo also reported better-than-expected earnings, with a notable increase in net interest income. The bank reported earnings of $1.28 per share on revenue of $20.37 billion, showing a 2% decline in revenue compared to last year. Net income dropped 11% year-over-year to $5.1 billion?

- BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon are among other financial heavyweights that released their results today and did well.

Eli Lilly

- GLP1 weight loss meds come off the short supply list by the company

- FDA takes off too - which means compounding will not be  available for this drug (Zepbound - Tirzepatide )

- Compounding companies sue the FDA

- Less than a week later, the FDA is reconsidering allowing compounding companies to continue production

- WAIT - Doesn't Lilly have a patent until 2036?

Tesla Robo-Taxi Day - Follow Up

- DUD - promises and nothing except a car growth no steering wheel or driver's cockpit (as we predicted)

- Stock down 8% the next day as analysts seem to be getting bored with the story.

Boeing Follow Up

- Now the company - (employees still on strike) - laying off 10% of their employees - 17,000

- If cut to junk status, Boeing Co. will be the biggest US corporate borrower to ever be stripped of its investment-grade ratings and join junk bond indexes, flooding the high-yield market with a record volume of new debt to absorb.

- S&P Global Ratings said it’s considering downgrading the planemaker to junk as strikes at its manufacturing sites persist, hurting production.

Social Security Recipients

- The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.5% the cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.

- TIPs, SS payments

CPI and PPI

- The September Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), leaving it up 2.4% year-over-year versus 2.5% in August.

- The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), leaving it up 3.3% year-over-year versus 3.2% in August.

CPI YoY

China

- China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in September, raising concerns about one of the few bright spots in the world’s second largest economy.

- Customs data out Monday showed exports rose by 2.4% in September from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, while imports added 0.3%.

- Analysts had expected faster growth. China’s exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September in U.S. dollar terms, with imports anticipated to have posted a 0.9% year-on-year climb last month, according to Reuters polls.