Fixed Income Outlook - VP June 2024 Big Picture Discussion
Update: 2024-06-12
Description
This post is an excerpt from our June 11, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.
* We review our US Fixed Income Dashboard ahead of the June Fed Meeting and inflation data.
* Structurally: Fiscal deficits, demographics, geopolitical tensions, and pension funding ratios all bias yields higher.
* Cyclically: Our US term-premium, fair value, and neutral-rate models indicate fixed income markets are fairly priced on a 6-12m forward basis.
* Tactically: Our Fed Hiking Regime model has triggered, but Powell has made clear his reluctance to hike, with the risk-reward appearing limited when looking at STIR markets.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com
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