# Avian Flu Watch: Global H5N1 Tracker

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch, your weekly briefing on the worldwide spread of H5N1 avian influenza. I'm your host, and today we're tracking a virus that continues to evolve and expand across continents.

Let's start with the numbers. As of late November 2025, the World Health Organization reports 991 human cases of H5N1 have been documented since 2003, with a concerning 48 percent case fatality rate across 25 countries worldwide. More alarming, between November 2024 and May 2025 alone, an additional 24 cases emerged in the United States, bringing the domestic count to 70 infections. The majority of these—41 cases—involved exposure to infected dairy cattle, representing a significant shift in transmission patterns.

Geographic hotspots paint a complex picture. In Southeast Asia, Cambodia experienced three fatal human infections in 2025, with victims ranging from a 28-year-old man to a three-year-old child exposed to infected poultry. India reported a fatal case in April, while Mexico documented its first human death in the same month, a three-year-old girl. The Americas now account for the densest cluster of infections globally, with nine countries confirming 508 bird outbreaks in 2025 alone.

Within the United States, the West Coast dominates current outbreak distribution. Mathematical modeling indicates that California, Texas, and neighboring states represent the primary disease burden, with West Coast dairy operations reporting over eight times more outbreaks than any other region. Arizona and Wisconsin emerge as states at greatest risk for imminent detection, despite potentially harboring undetected infections already.

The dairy cattle outbreak trajectory deserves particular attention. Starting in Texas and spreading through interstate cattle commerce, the virus has adapted to establish itself in a new host population. By December 2024, transmission models predicted a uniform probability of infection across multiple states, with federal orders requiring testing of only thirty animals per exported cohort—a measure experts describe as insufficient for genuine control.

Regarding containment efforts, international responses show mixed results. Current interventions—primarily interstate testing protocols—have prevented approximately 175 reported outbreaks but remain inadequate according to epidemiological modeling. Stronger farm-focused biosecurity measures are needed but remain largely unimplemented. In contrast, the development and deployment of H5N1 surveillance systems in wild bird populations has provided valuable early warning capabilities.

Variant evolution presents ongoing concern. The dominant strain worldwide is clade 2.3.4.4b, which has demonstrated increased capacity to infect mammals beyond traditional avian species. Wild birds continue dispersing the virus across continents, with detections now spanning from North America to Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia.

Travel advisories remain cautious. Areas with active dairy outbreaks—particularly California, Texas, and the upper Midwest—warrant heightened awareness for those with agricultural exposure. The dramatic decrease in United States human cases from 67 in 2024 to three by early 2025 suggests protective measures are functioning, yet complacency poses genuine risk.

As we head into winter months, wild bird migration patterns will likely accelerate viral dispersal. Surveillance systems must remain vigilant across international borders.

Thank you for tuning in to Avian Flu Watch. Join us next week for updated case tracking and emerging developments. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more information, check out Quiet Please Dot A I.

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI