AVIAN FLU WATCH: GLOBAL H5N1 TRACKER

Welcome to Avian Flu Watch, a data-focused exploration of the worldwide bird flu landscape. I'm your host, and today we're examining the current state of H5N1 transmission across the globe as of December 2025.

Let's start with the numbers. The FAO reports that since late September 2025, 954 avian influenza outbreaks have been documented across 38 countries and territories. The H5Nx subtype dominates with 661 cases, followed by H5N1 with 286 confirmed outbreaks, H5N5 with 4 cases, and smaller numbers of H7Nx and HxNx variants. These figures represent an unprecedented scale of animal-level transmission.

In terms of human infections, the CDC confirms 71 cases of H5 bird flu in the United States since 2024, with one confirmed death in Louisiana. Forty-one cases originated from dairy herds, twenty-four from poultry farms and culling operations, three from other animal exposures, and three from unknown sources. California leads with thirty-eight cases, followed by Washington state with twelve and Colorado with ten. This geographic concentration reflects the dairy industry distribution and cattle movement patterns.

Globally, the epidemiological picture is more sobering. Since 2003, more than 890 sporadic human infections with H5N1 have been reported across twenty-three countries, with approximately fifty percent resulting in mortality according to WHO data. The recent 2024-2025 outbreak in the United States has intensified public health concerns.

Wild birds remain the primary transmission vector. The USGS reports that H5N1 has been detected in over ten thousand wild birds representing more than 160 unique North American species since the panzootic began in late 2021. These migratory populations are driving continental and even circumpolar spread patterns. Recent detections in November 2025 across Washington, Idaho, and Missouri indicate active circulation.

The dairy cattle outbreak presents a novel concern. A mathematical model from research institutions predicts that West Coast states, particularly California, will continue experiencing concentrated outbreaks through 2025 due to existing trade patterns with Texas and larger average herd sizes. The model forecasts that Arizona and Wisconsin face greatest risk for emerging infections. Interstate cattle movement, despite testing requirements for exports of more than thirty animals, remains insufficient for containment. Current interventions have prevented only an estimated 175 reported outbreaks.

Emerging data reveals troubling transmission routes. The bovine-origin H5N1 has demonstrated spread from infected cattle to poultry, domestic cats, raccoons, and rodents. More significantly, kittens have become infected through consumption of raw milk containing the virus, while CDC reports multiple dairy worker infections linked to raw milk exposure. This represents a paradigm shift in zoonotic transmission understanding.

Internationally, the Pan American Health Organization reports that nine countries in the Americas confirmed 508 bird outbreaks during 2025, with thousands of wild bird detections. Europe experienced HPAI detections in western and southwestern regions through September 2025.

Vaccine development is underway. The CDC has developed H5 vaccine candidates for at-risk populations including farm workers and livestock handlers. Moderna, Astra Zeneca, and other private and public health organizations globally are accelerating vaccine development timelines.

Current travel recommendations advise against direct contact with wild birds, poultry farms, and unpasteurized dairy products in affected regions. Healthcare providers should maintain heightened surveillance for respiratory illness in occupational groups with animal exposure.

Thank you for tuning in to Avian Flu Watch. Join us next week for updated tracking data and emerging developments in global H5N1 surveillance. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more information, check out Quiet Please dot A I.

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI