# AVIAN FLU WATCH: GLOBAL H5N1 TRACKER

Hello, I'm your host, and welcome to Avian Flu Watch, where we track the global spread of H5N1 bird flu with the latest data and analysis. Today we're examining a pandemic threat that continues to evolve across continents, affecting wildlife, livestock, and human populations.

Let's start with the current global picture. As of August 2025, the World Health Organization reports nearly 1,000 cumulative human cases of H5N1 since 2003, with a concerning 48 percent fatality rate across 25 countries worldwide. However, recent transmission patterns reveal a dramatic acceleration. Between June and September 2025 alone, 19 new human cases emerged across just four countries, including three deaths. This clustering suggests changing epidemiology that demands our attention.

Geographically, the outbreak presents distinct regional hotspots. Cambodia has emerged as perhaps the most alarming epicenter, reporting 11 H5N1 cases during the June-September period, predominantly in children with direct exposure to infected poultry. India reported one case, Bangladesh one case, and China documented additional infections with variant H5N1, H10N3, and H9N2 strains. Meanwhile, the Americas have experienced massive outbreaks in animal populations. As of mid-October 2025, 19 countries and territories in the Americas reported over 5,000 avian influenza outbreaks, with 76 human infections resulting in two deaths between 2022 and October 2025.

The United States presents a particularly complex situation. In 2024, H5N1 invaded dairy cattle operations, a novel development that shifted outbreak dynamics dramatically. Mathematical modeling indicates the majority of disease burden concentrated in West Coast states, with California alone reporting more than eight times the outbreaks of any other state. However, the model predicts significant under-reporting in Midwest states, with Arizona and Wisconsin identified as highest-risk areas for undetected transmission. Current federal testing requires up to 30 cattle from exported cohorts to test negative before interstate movement is permitted. Yet modeling analysis shows this border testing intervention alone prevents only 175 mean reported outbreaks and remains insufficient for epidemic control.

A critical emerging concern involves variant evolution. The dominant strain involves H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, which has demonstrated expanding host range, infecting terrestrial and marine mammals previously considered low-risk. Since 2022, 22 countries across three continents reported mammal outbreaks to the World Organization for Animal Health. In South America, H5N1 killed an estimated 600,000 wild birds and 50,000 mammals since 2022, devastating seal populations with mortality rates reaching 96 percent in surveyed areas.

Cross-border transmission patterns reveal wild bird migration as the central dispersal mechanism for the 2021-2023 epizootic. Cattle movement through interstate trade networks drives domestic transmission, with Texas serving as the original source for West Coast spread.

Regarding travel advisories, Cambodia warrants particular caution given sustained human transmission linked to poultry exposure. International health organizations recommend avoiding direct contact with domestic or wild birds, ensuring thorough cooking of poultry products, and seeking immediate medical attention for respiratory symptoms following bird exposure.

Looking forward, stronger farm-focused biosecurity interventions prove essential beyond current border testing measures. Surveillance gaps, particularly in high-risk Midwest states, demand urgent expansion and investment.

Thank you for tuning in to Avian Flu Watch. Join us next week for continued tracking of this evolving pandemic threat. This has been a Quiet Please production. For more content, check out Quiet Please dot A I.

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