Listeners, today’s top story in global trade is the sweeping escalation of US tariffs on Indian goods under the Trump administration. As of August 7, President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on Indian imports, and in response to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil, announced a further hike to a staggering 50%, set to take effect on August 27. According to the Economic Times, this move vaults India into the position of America’s most heavily taxed Asian trading partner, with the White House justifying the tariffs as pressure to curb Moscow’s wartime revenues and force a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The timing is no accident. President Trump is days away from his Alaska summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, seeking leverage at the negotiating table. In an interview with Fox News Radio, Trump openly tied the Indian tariffs to influencing Moscow, pointing out that stripping Russia of its second-biggest oil buyer is meant to bring Putin to talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has even warned that tariffs could be ratcheted up further if Russia does not halt its actions in Ukraine. Despite these geopolitical aims, India has called the measures “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” emphasizing its energy security needs and defending its oil trade with Russia as essential to protecting millions of Indians from rising fuel costs.

Economic implications for India are immediate and severe. The Times of India reports the steep tariffs could slash Indian exports to the US by between $30 and $50 billion, depending on how much trade shifts elsewhere or adapts to new costs. Labor-intensive sectors—especially textiles, gems and jewellery, marine products, auto components, and agriculture—face brutal setbacks. Gems and jewellery alone, sending a third of output to the US, could see sales collapse, with India’s overall GDP growth forecast trimmed by up to one full percentage point if worst-case scenarios materialize.

The motivations behind these tariffs run deeper than economics. Experts at the Global Trade Research Initiative, cited by both the Economic Times and Columbia Energy Exchange, argue that the White House is using tariffs as a blunt lever to force India’s compliance on a host of issues, including agriculture, patent laws, and military purchases. India’s refusal to “fall in line” contrasts with Washington’s expectations of countries like Pakistan. With bilateral talks deadlocked over US demands for access to the vast Indian agriculture and dairy market, Prime Minister Modi has declared his government will never compromise on the livelihoods of Indian farmers and fishermen.

Despite tariff threats and frosty rhetoric, both sides insist dialogue continues. Commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal confirms ongoing negotiations, with the next round set for late August. The eventual aim remains ambitious: a first-stage bilateral trade agreement by October and a doubling of US-India trade to $500 billion by 2030, a sharp contrast to the current $191 billion figure.

That wraps up this edition of India Tariff News and Tracker. Thank you for tuning in—don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a quiet please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.

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