Welcome to India Tariff News and Tracker. Today’s spotlight is on a week of remarkable tension and change in the US-India economic relationship, shaped by dramatic US tariff hikes and sharp responses from Indian leaders.

US President Donald Trump has moved ahead with one of the most aggressive tariff actions in the world, imposing a 25 percent tariff on Indian goods, and confirming that this rate will double to a stunning 50 percent from August 27, 2025. According to Telangana Today and Times of India, these tariffs are explicitly a response to India’s growing imports of Russian oil—an area where Indian policymakers maintain their right to independent decisions. President Trump says the purchases are helping Russia fund its war in Ukraine, but Indian leaders, including Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, have dismissed the move as unfair, pointing out that other major buyers of Russian oil such as China and the European Union have not faced similar US penalties.

The new trade barriers are already having a chilling effect on India’s key export sectors. Kolkata’s $4.1 billion leather industry, for instance, is now grappling with immediate price shocks, with US import duties on Indian footwear jumping from 5-8 percent to nearly 50 percent. Exporters warn that American retailers are quickly shifting supply chains to competitors like Vietnam and Indonesia, whose imports face much lower tariffs. Council for Leather Exports vice chairman Ramesh Juneja said the industry is almost paralyzed, and some Indian manufacturers are exploring moving final production to Europe to sidestep the new duties, as reported by the Times of India.

Beyond the industry impact, trade experts such as those at Capital Economics warn that the full brunt of these tariffs could trim India’s economic output by at least 0.8 percentage points this year and the next. That would push Indian GDP growth below six percent, undermining one of the world’s most promising emerging economies.

India is seeking to cushion the blow, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi announcing new cuts to the goods and services tax, potentially bringing everyday prices down for Indian consumers and businesses. This tax overhaul aims to soften the pain as Indian exporters face plunging orders and uncertainty.

Negotiations, however, are at an impasse. US trade representatives abruptly canceled a planned visit to New Delhi this week, removing a pathway for urgent dialogue. Despite the standoff, Indian officials say lines of communication remain open and they will defend the interests of their farmers and small producers, drawing a hard line on issues like agricultural subsidies.

Many analysts and policy voices, such as those at the Australian Institute of International Affairs, are urging Washington to adopt a more collaborative approach, warning that harsh tariffs could drive India closer to China—a strategic blunder for the US in the Indo-Pacific.

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