Listeners, today’s top story is the escalation of tariffs between the United States and India, with dramatic new developments set to shake trade ties this week. Starting Wednesday, Indian goods entering the US will be hit with a 50 percent tariff, as President Trump doubles down on duties in a bid to pressure India over its continued import of discounted Russian oil. This move effectively doubles the existing tariff rate, which had already been causing pain across sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewelry, auto parts, and especially seafood, where exporters are now bracing for large-scale order cancellations.

According to Business Standard and the Times of India, this 50 percent tariff could threaten up to $87 billion in Indian exports—nearly a fifth of India’s outbound shipments to its single largest export destination. Indian officials anticipate the new tariffs could reduce India’s GDP growth by up to 0.6 percentage points, with financial agencies like Nomura projecting a new base case growth rate of 6.0 percent for the coming fiscal year.

The backdrop: President Trump’s administration has defended these duties as “aggressive economic leverage,” deploying them not simply for trade goals but as an explicit tool to punish India’s energy ties with Russia. US Vice President JD Vance stated that the tariffs are designed to make it harder for Russia to benefit from its oil trade, with the intention of forcing Moscow to stop its ongoing military campaign in Ukraine. Notably, New Delhi has forcefully rejected the American line, maintaining its right to source oil wherever it secures the best deal, especially in the face of Western sanctions on Moscow. India’s ambassador to Russia, Vinay Kumar, has repeatedly called the US move “unfair, unreasonable, and unjustified.”

The diplomatic fallout is severe. Scheduled high-level US-India trade talks were abruptly called off, and India’s Prime Minister’s Office is convening an emergency meeting to develop sector-specific relief, particularly targeted at small- and medium-scale exporters most vulnerable to cost shocks. Policy measures under review include cluster-based working capital funds and credit guarantees to cushion the blow.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar reflected on the pressures, stressing that India’s trade policy would remain rooted in the interests of its farmers and small businesses, and that diversification of export markets was now a strategic imperative. He called out what he called the “novel use” of tariffs for non-trade objectives under Trump, emphasizing that India will not compromise its strategic autonomy.

This fast-moving tariff standoff leaves the future of India–US economic ties uncertain. As Indian exporters dig in and officials scramble, all eyes are on whether ongoing diplomacy can deliver any relief, or if New Delhi will redouble efforts to boost local consumption and pivot towards alternative markets.

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