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India and the United States are on the brink of finalizing a crucial trade deal that could dramatically reduce the punitive tariffs imposed by President Trump earlier this year. According to multiple sources including The Star and Business Standard, the tariff rate on Indian goods could be slashed from the current 50 percent down to approximately 15 to 16 percent, marking a significant shift in the trade relationship between the two nations.

The current situation remains complex. Trump initially imposed a 25 percent reciprocal tariff on India, then added another 25 percent secondary duty specifically targeting India's continued purchase of Russian oil, bringing the total to 50 percent on certain goods. This made India one of the countries facing the highest tariffs under the Trump administration.

However, negotiations have progressed substantially in recent weeks. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated Thursday that progress is being made toward a fair and equitable deal in the near future. The talks, which resumed in September after a July deadlock, have focused on agricultural market access, with India considering increased purchases of American soybeans and corn as part of the agreement.

The timing of any announcement remains uncertain due to domestic political considerations. While both sides had hoped to announce a deal during the ASEAN summit in Malaysia this weekend, Prime Minister Modi is attending only virtually, with Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar leading the delegation instead. Indian officials are cautious about making announcements before the Bihar state elections in mid-November, given the political sensitivity around agricultural imports in a state that produces both corn and soybeans.

Despite the tariff tensions, India's economic outlook remains strong. The IMF projects India will maintain its position as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies, with a growth rate of 6.6 percent for 2025-26, up from the previous estimate of 6.4 percent. This upward revision demonstrates India's economic resilience even in the face of American trade measures.

On the Russian oil issue, Trump told reporters Wednesday that India is weaning itself off Russian energy imports and will be down to almost nothing by year's end, though Indian officials have denied any such commitment was made. India imported approximately 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne crude in the first nine months of this year.

Trade experts suggest that finalizing this deal is critical for rebuilding trust between the two nations after months of strained relations.

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