Welcome back to India Tariff News and Tracker. I'm your host, and today we're breaking down the latest developments in the US-India trade relationship as we head into the final month of 2025.

The situation has shifted dramatically since August when the Trump administration imposed a punishing 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, including a 25 percent penalty specifically targeting India's purchases of Russian oil. These tariffs hammered India's export sectors, with engineering exports alone dropping 14.5 percent to 1.39 billion dollars in October compared to the previous month. Indian exporters have been forced to pivot, redirecting shipments to Asia and Europe to offset the damage.

But here's where things get interesting. On November 14th, the Trump administration removed tariffs on more than 200 imported food products, and Indian agricultural exporters were among the major beneficiaries. This marked the first concrete signal that Washington recognized its policies weren't delivering the intended results. Rising grocery prices and public discontent have apparently shifted the administration's calculus.

The real news is that bilateral trade negotiations between the US and India are now entering their final phases. Both sides are working toward a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement targeting 500 billion dollars in annual trade by 2030, nearly triple current levels. The discussions are focusing on two key components. First, resolving immediate tariff issues, including those reciprocal tariffs and the Russian oil surcharge. Second, addressing longer-term concerns around technology transfer, data protection, and market access for Indian IT and services professionals.

According to Indian commerce officials, most issues have been resolved, and political-level discussions are nearing finalization. The proposed reciprocal tariff rates are being negotiated at either 12 to 15 percent or 15 to 19 percent, positioning India favorably compared to other Asian nations currently operating at 19 to 20 percent rates.

The wild card remains the 25 percent penalty on Russian oil purchases. Indian refiners have already begun cutting orders in anticipation of potential relief, but resolution here is critical. Without addressing this surcharge, Indian officials have signaled the broader agreement would lack meaning.

Meanwhile, India's successful free trade agreement with the UK, finalized in May 2025, demonstrates New Delhi's ability to secure favorable terms. That deal projects doubling bilateral trade to 120 billion dollars by 2030.

Listeners, what we're witnessing is a pivotal moment. India faces tariffs unlike any other trading partner, yet simultaneously maintains momentum toward a breakthrough deal. The coming weeks will determine whether December brings resolution or continued uncertainty.

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