With: 

Marcelo Carvalho,  Global Head of Economics

Dani Stoilova, Economist, Europe

Mariana Monteiro, Economist, Europe

Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst

BNP Paribas London Branch  | Global Markets (Recorded 25 April 2023) 

• The proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan would be net positive for the EU outlook, in our view, supporting private investment and new green and clean-tech jobs.


• Coming on top of the NextGenerationEU programme and other existing funds, the EU has the means to compete with the US in the green transition.


• A subsidy race or ‘green trade war’ looks unlikely, due in part to the prospect of a limited US–EU trade deal.


• However, we think the EU could do more to improve the efficiency of its funding, to address perceptions that it is on the back foot relative to the US, and to maintain cohesion between its member states.


• To the extent that this is another force supporting a trend of reshoring, the overall effect is likely to be inflationary over the next few years.


• At a sector level, we think EU plans stand to benefit solar in particular, but firms will require greater detail around these subsidies before committing to significant investments.

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