US: Q4 frost warning - consumer cold front moving in
Update: 2023-10-11
Description
Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US
Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US
Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US
BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 October 2023)
- The US consumer has powered ahead this year, but we see several factors that could slow spending in the near term.
- Most lower and middle-income households have depleted their excess savings, while interest payments as a share of income look set to approach levels last seen ahead of the global financial crisis.
- We expect consumer spending growth to slow sharply this quarter, to just 0.5% q/q saar from a 3.6% Q3 pace.
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