The team unpacks October’s Trump–Xi meeting and the short-term “truce” it produced: a ~10 percentage-point cut on broad China tariffs tied to fentanyl controls, a one-year pause on rare-earth/magnet export controls, resumed Chinese purchasing of US soy/other ag, and continued Section 301 exclusions for key medical, electronics, HVAC, and solar items.

We explain what actually shifted, what didn’t, and the practical moves US importers should make now. We close with signals from Chinese media and what to watch next from Beijing.

 

Episode Sections:

• 00:32 – Setting the scene: Trump–Xi met in South Korea (Oct 30). Expectations vs reality.


• 01:16 – Renaud’s first take: anticipation vs limited outcomes


• 04:47 – Rare earths & magnets: one-year pause on export controls and why it matters


• 07:22 – Tariffs: tone softens; specific cuts hit “fentanyl punishment” lines (20%→10%)


• 09:43 – What that means to landed cost (example: 54%→44%)


• 11:06 – Planning stability: from 90-day chaos to ~12 months of predictability


• 11:47 – Fentanyl precursors: enforcement complexity & policy trade-offs


• 14:00 – Section 301 exclusions extended (medical, electronics, HVAC, solar examples)


• 16:59 – What importers should do: horizons, HS discipline, alternatives, and risk


• 19:20 – Substantial transformation & multi-country routing: when it makes sense


• 22:00 – DDP renegotiations & compliance exposure


• 22:59 – Buffer stock & design tweaks to reduce magnet dependence


• 26:33 – Long-term trajectory: conflict risk and diversification logic


• 28:03 – China reactions round-up & closing thoughts


• 30:42 – Outro

 

Related content...

• 
  

  Reuters U.S.–China headlines & rare‑earth pause

  
  


• 
  

  Politico: ‘Amazing meeting’: Trump touts progress on multiple fronts with China after meeting Xi

  
  


• 
  

  Guardian: First Thing: Trump says rare earths deal and tariff cut agreed with China

  
  


• 
  

  Xinhua (English): China unveils outcomes of China-U.S. economic, trade talks in Kuala Lumpur

  
  


• 
  

  MOFCOM (English) — 2025 announcement page (export declaration/controls reference; for primary-source language & numbering)

  
  


• 
  

  USTR Section 301: https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/enforcement/section-301-investigations

  
  


• 
  

  CBP Trade: https://www.cbp.gov/trade

  
  

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